PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeEmirates StadiumFull-time recap
3–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricArsenalNottingham Forest
Shots16 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession54%46%
Corners8 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsArsenal · Nottingham Forest9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricArsenalNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match9 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against9.75 shots/match11.5 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.5 corners/match▲CornersArsenal · Nottingham Forest5 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricArsenalNottingham ForestBaseline
Corners5.5 corners/match5 corners/match4.46 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Arsenal favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 0 · 14 too close

2.25 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 4/42 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 4/49 shots/match
9.75 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 4/411.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 4/42.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 4/45 shots/match
52%Possessionseason · 4/454%
5.5 corners/matchCornersseason · 4/45 corners/match
2.75 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 4/45.25 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCardsseason · 4/41.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 4/410.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
75%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 4/40%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 4/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Arsenal57.5
Nottingham Forest67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Arsenal74.2
Nottingham Forest23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Arsenal80.8
Nottingham Forest20
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Arsenal82.5
Nottingham Forest2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Arsenal56.2
Nottingham Forest32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Arsenal72.5
Nottingham Forest62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Arsenal66.2
Nottingham Forest36.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/49 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.5 shots/match
52%Possession4/454%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/49 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.5 shots/match
52%Possession4/454%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

4 / 4 matches
2.25 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41 goals/match
0.25 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.5 shots/match▲Shots4/49 shots/match
3.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/42.5 shots/match
52%Possession4/454%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
1.75 cards/matchCards4/41.25 cards/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsArsenalNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match