PitchMath
Premier League · 2025Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeVilla ParkFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAston VillaCrystal Palace
Shots13 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match4 shots/match
Possession58%●42%
Corners10 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share. A second useful context is: Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

58%●PossessionAston Villa · Crystal Palace37.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 20.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaCrystal PalaceBaseline
Possession58%37.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Crystal Palace show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Crystal Palace's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAston Villa · Crystal Palace8.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAston VillaCrystal PalaceBaseline
Shots11 shots/match8.33 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Aston Villa
1Draws
2Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace — Aston Villa · Premier League4–1
Aston Villa — Crystal Palace · Premier League2–2
Crystal Palace — Aston Villa · Premier League5–0
Aston Villa — Crystal Palace · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Aston Villa favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Crystal Palace in 0 · 13 too close

0 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/31.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/30.33 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/38.33 shots/match
10.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/313.7 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/34 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/32.67 shots/match
58%●Possessionseason · 3/337.3%
7.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 3/31.33 corners/match
3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/38 corners/match
2 cards/matchCardsseason · 3/33 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/312.3 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/367%
0%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/367%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Aston Villa82.5
Crystal Palace2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Aston Villa29.2
Crystal Palace39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Aston Villa61.7
Crystal Palace64.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Aston Villa12.5
Crystal Palace52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa51.2
Crystal Palace81.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Aston Villa90
Crystal Palace2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Aston Villa53.1
Crystal Palace33.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Aston Villa3 matchesCrystal Palace3 matches
0 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲1.33 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed3/3▲0.33 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/match▲Shots3/38.33 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲4 shots/match
58%●Possession3/337.3%
7.33 corners/match●Corners3/31.33 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards3/33 cards/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls3/312.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Aston Villa2 matchesCrystal Palace2 matches
—Goals scored2/2—
—Goals allowed2/2—
—Expected goals0/0—
—Shots2/2—
—Shots on target2/2—
—Possession2/2—
—Corners2/2—
—Cards2/2—
—Fouls2/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.21 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Aug 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAston VillaCrystal Palace
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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