Serie A · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull time

Lecce

1–0Full-time recap

Genoa

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples38 / 38home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Home	Away	Baseline
Goals for	0.2 goals/match	1.08 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lecce12.5

Genoa47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lecce10

Genoa41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lecce44.2

Genoa40.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lecce47.5

Genoa37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lecce35

Genoa40

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 87%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lecce52.5

Genoa12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lecce28.8

Genoa34.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

Metric	Lecce	Genoa
Goals scored	1.2 goals/match5 obs.	0.2 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed	0.8 goals/match5 obs.	1 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals	1.06 xG/match5 obs.	0.77 xG/match5 obs.
Shots	9.4 shots/match5 obs.	8.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target	3.8 shots/match5 obs.	1.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession	38%5 obs.	52.6%5 obs.
Corners	3 corners/match5 obs.	3.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—0 obs.
Fouls	12.6 fouls/match5 obs.	10 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

Metric	Lecce	Genoa
Goals scored	0.8 goals/match10 obs.	0.7 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed	1.3 goals/match10 obs.	1.1 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals	0.92 xG/match10 obs.	0.99 xG/match10 obs.
Shots	9.8 shots/match10 obs.	11.2 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target	2.9 shots/match10 obs.	2.9 shots/match10 obs.
Possession	38.5%10 obs.	53%10 obs.
Corners	3.7 corners/match10 obs.	4.1 corners/match10 obs.
Cards	—0 obs.	—1 obs.
Fouls	12.4 fouls/match10 obs.	9.7 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches

Metric	Lecce	Genoa
Goals scored	0.74 goals/match38 obs.	1.08 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed	1.32 goals/match38 obs.	1.34 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals	0.92 xG/match10 obs.	0.99 xG/match10 obs.
Shots	9.82 shots/match38 obs.	11.4 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target	2.55 shots/match38 obs.	3.76 shots/match38 obs.
Possession	41.6%38 obs.	48.7%38 obs.
Corners	4.29 corners/match38 obs.	3.68 corners/match38 obs.
Cards	1.79 cards/match28 obs.	2 cards/match29 obs.
Fouls	12.6 fouls/match38 obs.	12.4 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

Metric	Lecce	Genoa
Goals scored	0.68 goals/match19 obs.	1 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed	1.26 goals/match19 obs.	1.32 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals	1.11 xG/match4 obs.	0.9 xG/match6 obs.
Shots	10.6 shots/match19 obs.	10.8 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target	2.84 shots/match19 obs.	3.63 shots/match19 obs.
Possession	44.3%19 obs.	46.1%19 obs.
Corners	4.21 corners/match19 obs.	3.74 corners/match19 obs.
Cards	2.07 cards/match15 obs.	2.08 cards/match13 obs.
Fouls	12 fouls/match19 obs.	12.2 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Goals scoredseason	0.74 goals/match15th	1.08 goals/match38th	1.17 goals/match	38 / 38
Goals allowedseason	1.32 goals/match63th	1.34 goals/match73th	1.24 goals/match	38 / 38
Expected goalsseason	0.92 xG/match18th	0.99 xG/match28th	1.18 xG/match	10 / 10
Expected goals allowedseason	1.5 xG/match98th	1.25 xG/match48th	1.29 xG/match	10 / 10
Shotsseason	9.82 shots/match13th	11.4 shots/match43th	11.6 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots allowedseason	12.7 shots/match45th	12.7 shots/match45th	12.8 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on targetseason	2.55 shots/match3th	3.76 shots/match45th	3.8 shots/match	38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason	4.24 shots/match60th	4.24 shots/match60th	4.2 shots/match	38 / 38
Possessionseason	41.6%13th	48.7%48th	49.5%	38 / 38
Cornersseason	4.29 corners/match53th	3.68 corners/match13th	4.28 corners/match	38 / 38
Corners allowedseason	5.34 corners/match93th	4.84 corners/match68th	4.61 corners/match	38 / 38
Cardsseason	1.79 cards/match23th	2 cards/match43th	2.05 cards/match	28 / 29
Foulsseason	12.6 fouls/match48th	12.4 fouls/match38th	12.9 fouls/match	38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason	26%30th	24%23th	32%	38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason	50%13th	61%33th	71%	38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

Metric	Home	Away	Competition	Samples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures	7 days—	7.36 days—	—	1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures	1 matches—	1 matches—	—	1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.