PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull time

Cremonese

1–4Full-time recap

Como

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Cremonese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cremonese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.84 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Cremonese show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Cremonese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots9.08 shots/match14.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Como have a visible away split

moderate

Como's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Cremonese42.5
Como97.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Cremonese14.2
Como87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Cremonese7.5
Como92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Cremonese2.5
Como32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Cremonese67.5
Como70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Cremonese2.5
Como72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Cremonese23.8
Como77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricCremoneseComo
Goals scored1.2 goals/match5 obs.1.6 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed2 goals/match5 obs.0.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.7 xG/match5 obs.1.68 xG/match5 obs.
Shots8.6 shots/match5 obs.14.6 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target4 shots/match5 obs.4.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession46%5 obs.61.4%5 obs.
Corners4.4 corners/match5 obs.6.4 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—2 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls12 fouls/match5 obs.12.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricCremoneseComo
Goals scored1 goals/match10 obs.1.9 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.7 goals/match10 obs.0.8 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals0.81 xG/match10 obs.1.61 xG/match10 obs.
Shots9 shots/match10 obs.15.7 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.6 shots/match10 obs.5.3 shots/match10 obs.
Possession49.1%10 obs.62.7%10 obs.
Corners3.8 corners/match10 obs.5.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards3.33 cards/match3 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls13.1 fouls/match10 obs.11.8 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricCremoneseComo
Goals scored0.84 goals/match38 obs.1.71 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.5 goals/match38 obs.0.76 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals0.81 xG/match10 obs.1.61 xG/match10 obs.
Shots9.08 shots/match38 obs.14.4 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target3.29 shots/match38 obs.5.11 shots/match38 obs.
Possession46.4%38 obs.61.6%38 obs.
Corners3.45 corners/match38 obs.4.47 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.23 cards/match31 obs.2.27 cards/match30 obs.
Fouls13.4 fouls/match38 obs.13.3 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricCremoneseComo
Goals scored0.95 goals/match19 obs.1.58 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.53 goals/match19 obs.0.74 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.06 xG/match6 obs.1.08 xG/match5 obs.
Shots10.3 shots/match19 obs.12.2 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target3.68 shots/match19 obs.3.89 shots/match19 obs.
Possession46.8%19 obs.59.3%19 obs.
Corners3.58 corners/match19 obs.3.95 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.38 cards/match16 obs.2.27 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls13.4 fouls/match19 obs.14.3 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason0.84 goals/match23th1.71 goals/match93th1.17 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.5 goals/match83th0.76 goals/match3th1.24 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason0.81 xG/match13th1.61 xG/match88th1.18 xG/match10 / 10
Expected goals allowedseason1.04 xG/match33th0.81 xG/match8th1.29 xG/match10 / 10
Shotsseason9.08 shots/match3th14.4 shots/match83th11.6 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason15.4 shots/match98th9 shots/match3th12.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason3.29 shots/match18th5.11 shots/match88th3.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason5.13 shots/match98th3.11 shots/match18th4.2 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason46.4%43th61.6%98th49.5%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.45 corners/match3th4.47 corners/match73th4.28 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason5.95 corners/match98th3.21 corners/match13th4.61 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.23 cards/match63th2.27 cards/match73th2.05 cards/match31 / 30
Foulsseason13.4 fouls/match73th13.3 fouls/match68th12.9 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason29%40th50%98th32%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason55%20th76%68th71%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7 days—7.36 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures1 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsCremoneseComo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v3