Milan
Serie A · 2025A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
Cagliari won 1–2.
- Shots
- 16–25
- Shots on target
- 3–10
- Expected goals
- 1.74–2.78
- Possession
- 48%–52%
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
AC Milan: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.79 xG. Cagliari: 25 shots, 10 on target, 2.96 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AC Milan 1.79 xG · Cagliari 2.96 xG.
Full time
What the match recorded
Cagliari beat AC Milan 2–1. Recorded in this match (AC Milan – Cagliari): shots 16–25, shots on target 3–10, expected goals 1.74–2.78, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Cagliari's recent record differs from the season
moderateCagliari's last-five shots average is above their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 15.4 shots/match | 10.9 shots/match | 11.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
AC Milan have a visible home split
moderateAC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 16.1 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match | 11.6 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Milan favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Cagliari in 0
Window
Season
Style profile
Style profile
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
Schedule context
Rest and recent workload
Milan / Cagliari
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
More football
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LecceTeam rankings in Serie A
Make a graphic from this match
Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.