PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull time

AC Milan

1–2Full-time recap

Cagliari

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Cagliari's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Cagliari's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Cagliari's last-five shots average is above their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match10.7 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan62.5
Cagliari32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan71.7
Cagliari25.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan73.3
Cagliari30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan72.5
Cagliari42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan15
Cagliari90
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan47.5
Cagliari25
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan48.1
Cagliari39.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricAC MilanCagliari
Goals scored1 goals/match5 obs.1.4 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.6 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals1.2 xG/match5 obs.1.68 xG/match5 obs.
Shots11.4 shots/match5 obs.15.4 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target3.6 shots/match5 obs.5 shots/match5 obs.
Possession46.4%5 obs.44.4%5 obs.
Corners3 corners/match5 obs.4.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—0 obs.
Fouls12.4 fouls/match5 obs.9.4 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricAC MilanCagliari
Goals scored0.9 goals/match10 obs.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.5 goals/match10 obs.1.5 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals1.16 xG/match10 obs.1.26 xG/match10 obs.
Shots12.2 shots/match10 obs.12.9 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target3.4 shots/match10 obs.3.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession51.6%10 obs.46%10 obs.
Corners3.6 corners/match10 obs.4.7 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls11.1 fouls/match10 obs.9.7 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricAC MilanCagliari
Goals scored1.39 goals/match38 obs.1.05 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed0.92 goals/match38 obs.1.39 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals1.16 xG/match10 obs.1.26 xG/match10 obs.
Shots13.2 shots/match38 obs.10.7 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target4.32 shots/match38 obs.3.42 shots/match38 obs.
Possession51.8%38 obs.45.7%38 obs.
Corners4.26 corners/match38 obs.3.76 corners/match38 obs.
Cards1.79 cards/match29 obs.2.52 cards/match29 obs.
Fouls10.1 fouls/match38 obs.13.7 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricAC MilanCagliari
Goals scored1.32 goals/match19 obs.0.95 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.11 goals/match19 obs.1.58 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals1.48 xG/match5 obs.1.44 xG/match5 obs.
Shots16.1 shots/match19 obs.11.1 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target4.89 shots/match19 obs.3.53 shots/match19 obs.
Possession53.9%19 obs.45.9%19 obs.
Corners4.95 corners/match19 obs.3.42 corners/match19 obs.
Cards1.86 cards/match14 obs.2.87 cards/match15 obs.
Fouls10.2 fouls/match19 obs.13.7 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason1.39 goals/match73th1.05 goals/match28th1.17 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason0.92 goals/match20th1.39 goals/match78th1.24 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason1.16 xG/match48th1.26 xG/match63th1.18 xG/match10 / 10
Expected goals allowedseason1.24 xG/match43th1.44 xG/match83th1.29 xG/match10 / 10
Shotsseason13.2 shots/match75th10.7 shots/match28th11.6 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason11.5 shots/match33th12.9 shots/match53th12.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason4.32 shots/match68th3.42 shots/match23th3.8 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason3.68 shots/match28th4.63 shots/match80th4.2 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason51.8%63th45.7%33th49.5%38 / 38
Cornersseason4.26 corners/match48th3.76 corners/match25th4.28 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.29 corners/match43th5.11 corners/match88th4.61 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason1.79 cards/match28th2.52 cards/match98th2.05 cards/match29 / 29
Foulsseason10.1 fouls/match3th13.7 fouls/match83th12.9 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason39%73th21%15th32%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason82%90th63%38th71%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.36 days—7 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsAC MilanCagliari
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v3