Serie A · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 10:00 UTCFull timeStadio Luigi FerrarisFull-time recap

Genoa

WWLDD

1–2Full-time recap

AC Milan

LWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Genoa	AC Milan
Shots	11 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.35 xG/match	1.45 xG/match▲
Possession	62%	38%
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	18 fouls/match
Yellow cards	2 cards/match▲	3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.11 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	10.3 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa

1Draws

0AC Milan

8 Jan 2026AC Milan — Genoa · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 12 · 2 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲1.41 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲0.89 goals/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 9/9▲1.09 xG/match

1.2 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲1.06 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲13.1 shots/match

12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲11.1 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/37▲4.35 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲3.51 shots/match

48.2%Possessionseason · 37/3751.9%

3.62 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/374.24 corners/match

4.95 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/37▲4.27 corners/match

2 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/29▲1.79 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3710.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

24%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲41%

62%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/37▲81%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa47.5

AC Milan62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa44.2

AC Milan71.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa41.7

AC Milan74.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa47.5

AC Milan67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa42.5

AC Milan15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa10

AC Milan47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa35.6

AC Milan48.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

0.94 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.02 xG/match

9.8 shots/matchShots5/59.4 shots/match

2.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.6 shots/match

50.2%Possession5/547.2%

3.2 corners/matchCorners5/52.2 corners/match

—Cards0/1—

12 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.1 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.3 goals/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.09 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots10/1011.5 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/103.3 shots/match

49.7%Possession10/1050.5%

3.8 corners/matchCorners10/103.2 corners/match

—Cards2/2—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲1.41 goals/match

1.35 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲0.89 goals/match

1.02 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲1.09 xG/match

11.5 shots/matchShots37/37▲13.1 shots/match

3.84 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲4.35 shots/match

48.2%Possession37/3751.9%

3.62 corners/matchCorners37/374.24 corners/match

2 cards/matchCards29/291.79 cards/match

12.5 fouls/matchFouls37/3710.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

1.16 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.47 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲0.74 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.84 xG/match

12.1 shots/match▲Shots19/1910.3 shots/match

3.89 shots/matchShots on target19/193.74 shots/match

51.4%Possession19/1949.7%

3.63 corners/matchCorners19/193.58 corners/match

1.94 cards/matchCards16/151.73 cards/match

12.6 fouls/matchFouls19/199.95 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.64 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

AC Milan have a visible away split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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