Serie A · 2025Sun, 10 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeStadio Giuseppe MeazzaFull-time recap

AC Milan

LLWDL

2–3Full-time recap

Atalanta

WLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	AC Milan	Atalanta
Shots	20 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	9 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.94 xG/match▲	1.08 xG/match
Possession	57%	43%
Corners	2 corners/match	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	17 fouls/match
Yellow cards	4 cards/match	3 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

AC Milan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.39 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.39 goals/match	1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AC Milan have a visible home split

moderate

AC Milan's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	16.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AC Milan

1Draws

0Atalanta

28 Oct 2025Atalanta — AC Milan · Serie A1–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AC Milan favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Atalanta in 4 · 6 too close

1.39 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/361.39 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 36/360.94 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲1.37 xG/match

1.03 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/81.07 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/36▲14.8 shots/match

11.1 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 36/3611.8 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 36/36▲4.67 shots/match

3.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 36/363.97 shots/match

52.3%Possessionseason · 36/3655.3%

4.25 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/365.81 corners/match

4.28 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/364.17 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/28▲1.64 cards/match

9.92 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/3611.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/3636%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 36/3681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AC Milan62.5

Atalanta67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AC Milan71.7

Atalanta80

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AC Milan74.2

Atalanta62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AC Milan67.5

Atalanta77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AC Milan15

Atalanta20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 89%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AC Milan52.5

Atalanta92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AC Milan50

Atalanta71.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.2 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.4 goals/match

1.06 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.33 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots5/5▲14.4 shots/match

3.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.6 shots/match

52.2%Possession5/555.6%

2.2 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.4 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.2 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.37 xG/match

12.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.5 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match

52%Possession10/1058.2%

3.5 corners/matchCorners10/106.2 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards3/2—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.6 fouls/match

Window

Season

36 / 36 matches

1.39 goals/matchGoals scored36/361.39 goals/match

0.89 goals/match▲Goals allowed36/360.94 goals/match

1.05 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.37 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots36/36▲14.8 shots/match

4.33 shots/matchShots on target36/36▲4.67 shots/match

52.3%Possession36/3655.3%

4.25 corners/matchCorners36/365.81 corners/match

1.79 cards/matchCards29/281.64 cards/match

9.92 fouls/matchFouls36/3611.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

18 / 18 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored18/181.39 goals/match

1.06 goals/matchGoals allowed18/181.11 goals/match

1.41 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.35 xG/match

16.1 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.9 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184.06 shots/match

54.2%Possession18/1854.3%

4.94 corners/matchCorners18/184.5 corners/match

1.86 cards/matchCards14/132.08 cards/match

10.3 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples36 / 36home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

AC Milan have a visible home split

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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