PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeNew Balance ArenaFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

Bologna

WLLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAtalantaBologna
Shots9 shots/match10 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.54 xG/match0.7 xG/match▲
Possession45%55%
Corners1 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match6 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match1 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Bologna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bologna's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atalanta have a visible home split

moderate

Atalanta's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.6 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Atalanta
0Draws
0Bologna
Bologna — Atalanta · Serie A0–2

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Atalanta favored in 8 of 14 directional metrics · Bologna in 2 · 4 too close

1.35 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/371.24 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 37/371.16 goals/match
1.28 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/90.95 xG/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/91.05 xG/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/3712.8 shots/match
11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲10.2 shots/match
4.54 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/373.76 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲3.68 shots/match
55%Possessionseason · 37/3755.4%
5.68 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/374.54 corners/match
4.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/374.22 corners/match
1.64 cards/match▲Cardsseason · 28/292.17 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3713.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/3732%
78%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3770%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Atalanta67.5
Bologna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Atalanta75.8
Bologna51.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Atalanta64.2
Bologna67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Atalanta77.5
Bologna22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Atalanta20
Bologna58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Atalanta92.5
Bologna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Atalanta68.8
Bologna55.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.4 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
1.07 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.72 xG/match
11.8 shots/match▲Shots5/510 shots/match
4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/554.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
14.2 fouls/matchFouls5/59.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.3 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101 goals/match
1.1 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101.1 goals/match
1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.95 xG/match
13.8 shots/match▲Shots10/1012.3 shots/match
3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match
55.1%Possession10/1056.8%
5.4 corners/matchCorners10/104.3 corners/match
—Cards1/2—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.5 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches
1.35 goals/match▲Goals scored37/371.24 goals/match
0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed37/371.16 goals/match
1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.95 xG/match
14.6 shots/match▲Shots37/3712.8 shots/match
4.54 shots/match▲Shots on target37/373.76 shots/match
55%Possession37/3755.4%
5.68 corners/matchCorners37/374.54 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards28/292.17 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls37/3713.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
1.32 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲1.58 goals/match
0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed19/191.21 goals/match
1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals4/50.88 xG/match
17.1 shots/match▲Shots19/1911 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target19/193.79 shots/match
55.7%Possession19/1953.7%
6.79 corners/matchCorners19/193.74 corners/match
1.27 cards/matchCards15/152.6 cards/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.89 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples37 / 37home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAtalantaBologna
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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