Serie A · 2025Sun, 17 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeMAPEI Stadium - Città del TricoloreFull-time recap

Sassuolo

LWDWL

2–3Full-time recap

Lecce

LDDWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sassuolo	Lecce
Shots	15 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match	6 shots/match
Expected goals	2.06 xG/match▲	0.87 xG/match
Possession	73%	27%
Corners	2 corners/match	8 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	13 fouls/match
Yellow cards	1 cards/match▲	4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lecce's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.73 goals/match	1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Sassuolo

1Draws

0Lecce

18 Oct 2025Lecce — Sassuolo · Serie A0–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Sassuolo favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Lecce in 4 · 3 too close

1.24 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 37/370.73 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/371.35 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 10/90.83 xG/match

1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/91.58 xG/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 37/379.84 shots/match

14.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲12.9 shots/match

3.84 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 37/372.51 shots/match

4.97 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲4.32 shots/match

46%Possessionseason · 37/3741.9%

3.84 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/374.38 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 37/375.32 corners/match

2.41 cards/matchCardsseason · 29/28▲1.79 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/3712.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

22%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲24%

70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 37/3749%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sassuolo37.5

Lecce12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sassuolo44.2

Lecce10

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sassuolo20

Lecce38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sassuolo42.5

Lecce32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo58.8

Lecce35

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sassuolo32.5

Lecce52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sassuolo33.1

Lecce28.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match

1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.57 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots5/510.4 shots/match

4.4 shots/match▲Shots on target5/53.8 shots/match

52.8%Possession5/542.6%

3.6 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match

—Cards1/0—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls5/512 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

1.3 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.4 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals10/90.83 xG/match

11.2 shots/match▲Shots10/109.8 shots/match

3.9 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.8 shots/match

49.9%Possession10/1039.4%

4 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

—Cards2/1—

11.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

37 / 37 matches

1.24 goals/match▲Goals scored37/370.73 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed37/371.35 goals/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals10/90.83 xG/match

10.8 shots/match▲Shots37/379.84 shots/match

3.84 shots/match▲Shots on target37/372.51 shots/match

46%Possession37/3741.9%

3.84 corners/matchCorners37/374.38 corners/match

2.41 cards/matchCards29/281.79 cards/match

11.9 fouls/matchFouls37/3712.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches

1.32 goals/match▲Goals scored19/190.79 goals/match

1.37 goals/matchGoals allowed19/191.37 goals/match

1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals5/60.8 xG/match

10.7 shots/match▲Shots19/199 shots/match

3.74 shots/match▲Shots on target19/192.26 shots/match

47.2%Possession19/1938.9%

3.79 corners/matchCorners19/194.37 corners/match

2.33 cards/matchCards15/131.46 cards/match

11.7 fouls/matchFouls19/1913.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

What the record shows

Lecce's recent record differs from the season

Head-to-head

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

Make a graphic from this match