PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTCFull time

Parma

1–0Full-time recap

Sassuolo

This page now describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Parma's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples38 / 38home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Key factors

The clearest supported patterns

Strength combines sample and difference. It is not a probability.

Sassuolo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sassuolo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Parma have a visible home split

moderate

Parma's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHomeAwayBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.7 shots/match11.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma17.5
Sassuolo37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma15.8
Sassuolo42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma36.7
Sassuolo19.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma57.5
Sassuolo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma30
Sassuolo58.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 88%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma37.5
Sassuolo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma20
Sassuolo31.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
MetricParmaSassuolo
Goals scored0.8 goals/match5 obs.1 goals/match5 obs.
Goals allowed1.2 goals/match5 obs.1.2 goals/match5 obs.
Expected goals0.84 xG/match5 obs.1.5 xG/match5 obs.
Shots9.6 shots/match5 obs.11.8 shots/match5 obs.
Shots on target2.6 shots/match5 obs.3.8 shots/match5 obs.
Possession42.4%5 obs.56.4%5 obs.
Corners3.2 corners/match5 obs.2.8 corners/match5 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—1 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match5 obs.11.6 fouls/match5 obs.

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
MetricParmaSassuolo
Goals scored0.8 goals/match10 obs.1.1 goals/match10 obs.
Goals allowed1.4 goals/match10 obs.1.2 goals/match10 obs.
Expected goals0.69 xG/match10 obs.1.15 xG/match10 obs.
Shots8.1 shots/match10 obs.11.1 shots/match10 obs.
Shots on target2.4 shots/match10 obs.3.6 shots/match10 obs.
Possession42.1%10 obs.49.7%10 obs.
Corners3.6 corners/match10 obs.3.5 corners/match10 obs.
Cards—1 obs.—2 obs.
Fouls10.7 fouls/match10 obs.12.2 fouls/match10 obs.

Window

Season

38 / 38 matches
MetricParmaSassuolo
Goals scored0.74 goals/match38 obs.1.21 goals/match38 obs.
Goals allowed1.21 goals/match38 obs.1.32 goals/match38 obs.
Expected goals0.69 xG/match10 obs.1.11 xG/match11 obs.
Shots10.7 shots/match38 obs.10.7 shots/match38 obs.
Shots on target2.74 shots/match38 obs.3.76 shots/match38 obs.
Possession44%38 obs.46.1%38 obs.
Corners3.84 corners/match38 obs.3.76 corners/match38 obs.
Cards2.03 cards/match29 obs.2.41 cards/match29 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match38 obs.11.9 fouls/match38 obs.

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

19 / 19 matches
MetricParmaSassuolo
Goals scored0.84 goals/match19 obs.1.11 goals/match19 obs.
Goals allowed1.32 goals/match19 obs.1.26 goals/match19 obs.
Expected goals0.8 xG/match5 obs.1.06 xG/match6 obs.
Shots12.4 shots/match19 obs.10.7 shots/match19 obs.
Shots on target2.95 shots/match19 obs.3.79 shots/match19 obs.
Possession45.6%19 obs.44.9%19 obs.
Corners4.16 corners/match19 obs.3.74 corners/match19 obs.
Cards2.07 cards/match15 obs.2.5 cards/match14 obs.
Fouls10.8 fouls/match19 obs.12.2 fouls/match19 obs.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Goals scoredseason0.74 goals/match18th1.21 goals/match58th1.16 goals/match38 / 38
Goals allowedseason1.21 goals/match45th1.32 goals/match60th1.24 goals/match38 / 38
Expected goalsseason0.69 xG/match3th1.11 xG/match53th1.1 xG/match10 / 11
Expected goals allowedseason1.48 xG/match93th1.43 xG/match83th1.18 xG/match10 / 11
Shotsseason10.7 shots/match23th10.7 shots/match28th11.7 shots/match38 / 38
Shots allowedseason14.1 shots/match83th14.4 shots/match90th12.9 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on targetseason2.74 shots/match8th3.76 shots/match43th3.84 shots/match38 / 38
Shots on target allowedseason4.29 shots/match63th4.92 shots/match93th4.16 shots/match38 / 38
Possessionseason44%18th46.1%38th49.3%38 / 38
Cornersseason3.84 corners/match38th3.76 corners/match28th4.31 corners/match38 / 38
Corners allowedseason4.95 corners/match78th4.89 corners/match68th4.6 corners/match38 / 38
Cardsseason2.03 cards/match48th2.41 cards/match90th2.05 cards/match29 / 29
Foulsseason10.8 fouls/match13th11.9 fouls/match28th12.9 fouls/match38 / 38
Clean-sheet frequencyseason34%60th21%13th32%38 / 38
Scoring frequencyseason58%28th68%43th71%38 / 38

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

MetricHomeAwayCompetitionSamples
Rest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures7.12 days—6.76 days——1 / 1
Matches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures2 matches—1 matches——1 / 1

What could change this?

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
TeamsParmaSassuolo
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 24 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v3