PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTCFull timeStadio Luigi FerrarisFull-time recap

Genoa

DWDWL
2–3Full-time recap

Napoli

DDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricGenoaNapoli
Shots12 shots/match14 shots/match▲
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Possession40%60%
Corners4 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls16 fouls/match12 fouls/match
Yellow cards2 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Genoa's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Genoa's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.21 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.21 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Napoli have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.5%▲PossessionGenoa · Napoli57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGenoaNapoliBaseline
Possession46.5%57.5%48.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Genoa
0Draws
1Napoli
Napoli — Genoa · Serie A2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Genoa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Napoli in 10 · 4 too close

1.21 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲1.5 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲13.2 shots/match
13.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲11 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲4.58 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲2.92 shots/match
46.5%Possessionseason · 24/2457.5%
3.42 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/245.29 corners/match
5.17 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲2.75 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲1.5 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2412.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲38%
71%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲75%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Genoa47.5
Napoli77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Genoa50.8
Napoli70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Genoa27.5
Napoli74.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Genoa42.5
Napoli22.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Genoa62.5
Napoli15
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Genoa7.5
Napoli87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Genoa41.2
Napoli61.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.2 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots5/5▲13.8 shots/match
4.6 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54 shots/match
45.4%Possession5/558.6%
3.4 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/51.8 cards/match
15.4 fouls/matchFouls5/513 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.4 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.1 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
9.8 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.4 shots/match
3.7 shots/matchShots on target10/103.8 shots/match
43.2%Possession10/1059.3%
2.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.4 cards/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.21 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲1.5 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲0.96 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.3 shots/matchShots24/24▲13.2 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲4.58 shots/match
46.5%Possession24/2457.5%
3.42 corners/matchCorners24/245.29 corners/match
2.21 cards/matchCards24/241.5 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

13 / 13 matches
1.08 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲1.31 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots13/13▲12.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target13/134.15 shots/match
50.2%Possession13/1357.8%
3.62 corners/matchCorners13/134.69 corners/match
2.08 cards/matchCards13/131.69 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.89 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Feb 2026, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsGenoaNapoli
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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