PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

DWLLL
0–1Full-time recap

Parma

WDDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaParma
Shots16 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲1 shots/match
Possession52%48%
Corners4 corners/match5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match14 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Parma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Parma show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Parma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsBologna · Parma11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolognaParmaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match14.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Bologna
0Draws
0Parma
Bologna — Parma · Coppa Italia2–1
Parma — Bologna · Serie A1–3

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 7 of 14 directional metrics · Parma in 2 · 5 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 24/240.67 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/241.25 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 24/2411 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 24/2414.7 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 24/242.71 shots/match
4.04 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 24/244.42 shots/match
55.1%Possessionseason · 24/2443.4%
4.79 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/243.71 corners/match
4 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 24/244.67 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCardsseason · 24/24▲2.04 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/2410.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲33%
71%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 24/2450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna72.5
Parma12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna59.2
Parma12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna61.7
Parma32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna37.5
Parma52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna72.5
Parma30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna62.5
Parma27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna61.2
Parma17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.2 goals/match▲Goals scored5/50.4 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
14.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.6 shots/match
3 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52 shots/match
55.8%Possession5/544.2%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/55.4 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards5/52.2 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls5/511.4 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.6 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.5 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.2 shots/match
3.1 shots/match▲Shots on target10/102.4 shots/match
52.4%Possession10/1045.3%
3.7 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match
2.6 cards/matchCards10/101.7 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1010.9 fouls/match

Window

Season

24 / 24 matches
1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored24/240.67 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.25 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/match▲Shots24/2411 shots/match
3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target24/242.71 shots/match
55.1%Possession24/2443.4%
4.79 corners/matchCorners24/243.71 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards24/242.04 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
1 goals/match▲Goals scored12/120.67 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲1.08 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.8 shots/match▲Shots12/1210.4 shots/match
3.92 shots/match▲Shots on target12/122.92 shots/match
56%Possession12/1243.5%
5.42 corners/matchCorners12/123.75 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards12/122.25 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1211 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.66 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.66 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaParma
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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