PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Bologna 0–1 Parma · Serie A

Bologna

DWLLL
0–1Historical match

Parma

WDDLL

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Parma won 0–1.

Shots
165
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
1.220.18
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Parma beat Bologna 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bologna – Parma): shots 16–5, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 1.22–0.18, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Parma's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Parma's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bologna have a visible home split

moderate

Bologna's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Parma show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Parma's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBologna · Parma11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBolognaParmaBaseline
Shots13.3 shots/match11 shots/match11.9 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match14.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots5 shotsBologna 16 shots, Parma 5 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotBologna 2 shots, Parma 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.22 xG0.18 xGBologna 1.22 xG, Parma 0.18 xG
  • Possession51%49%Bologna 51%, Parma 49%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersBologna 4 corners, Parma 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsBologna 10 fouls, Parma 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsBologna 1 card, Parma 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jhon Lucumí · Bologna · 8′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Ferguson · Bologna · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMandela Keita · Parma · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Bologna · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Rowe · Bologna · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Castro · Bologna · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Ordoñez · Parma · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalSantiago Castro · Bologna · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRemo Freuler · Bologna · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMandela Keita · Parma · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFederico Bernardeschi · Bologna · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJhon Lucumí · Bologna · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCharalampos Lykogiannis · Bologna · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Bernabé · Parma · 23′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 89′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Orsolini · Bologna · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetThijs Dallinga · Bologna · 32′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJonathan Rowe · Bologna · 75′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedThijs Dallinga · Bologna · 47′ · 0.42 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bologna: 16 shots, 2 on target, 1.24 xG. Parma: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Christian Ordoñez · Parma · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bologna 1.24 xG · Parma 0.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Bologna
1Draws
1Parma
Bologna — Parma · Coppa Italia2–1
Parma — Bologna · Serie A1–3
Parma — Bologna · Serie A2–0
Bologna — Parma · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bologna favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Parma in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bologna24 matchesParma24 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/240.67 goals/match
1.29 goals/matchGoals allowed24/241.25 goals/match
1.21 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/240.88 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots24/2411 shots/match
3.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/242.71 shots/match
55.1% ●Possession24/2443.5%
4.79 corners/match ●Corners24/243.71 corners/match
2.25 cards/matchCards24/242.04 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls24/2410.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBolognaParma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headBologna — Parma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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