PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Tue, 3 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Renato Dall'AraFull-time recap

Bologna

LDWLL
0–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBolognaAC Milan
Shots13 shots/match▲10 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Possession54%46%
Corners5 corners/match0 corners/match
Fouls14 fouls/match10 fouls/match
Yellow cards3 cards/match0 cards/match▲

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: AC Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

AC Milan's recent record differs from the season

weak

AC Milan's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.6 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Bologna
0Draws
1AC Milan
AC Milan — Bologna · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Bologna favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 7 · 6 too close

1.39 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.65 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/2313.6 shots/match
10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/2311.2 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲4.78 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲3.48 shots/match
55.3%Possessionseason · 23/2351.1%
4.83 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/234.7 corners/match
3.96 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234.61 corners/match
2.26 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.61 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/239.61 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
26%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲48%
74%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲96%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bologna72.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bologna60
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bologna60.8
AC Milan79.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bologna37.5
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bologna78.8
AC Milan12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bologna72.5
AC Milan62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bologna66.9
AC Milan52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.8 goals/match
2.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13 shots/match▲Shots5/511 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲4.4 shots/match
53.6%Possession5/547.4%
4.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.4 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards5/51.6 cards/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls5/59.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.9 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
12.2 shots/matchShots10/10▲13.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲5 shots/match
52.5%Possession10/1052.7%
3.6 corners/matchCorners10/105.9 corners/match
2.7 cards/matchCards10/101.5 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
1.39 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.65 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.74 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.2 shots/matchShots23/2313.6 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲4.78 shots/match
55.3%Possession23/2351.1%
4.83 corners/matchCorners23/234.7 corners/match
2.26 cards/matchCards23/231.61 cards/match
14.7 fouls/matchFouls23/239.61 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 12 matches
1.09 goals/matchGoals scored11/12▲1.75 goals/match
1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/12▲0.67 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.7 shots/match▲Shots11/1210.4 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target11/124.25 shots/match
56.4%Possession11/1248.9%
5.55 corners/matchCorners11/123.33 corners/match
1.82 cards/matchCards11/121.42 cards/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls11/128.75 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBolognaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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