PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli

Udinese 1–0 Roma · Serie A

Udinese

LWDLW
1–0Historical match

Roma

LWWWD

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Udinese won 1–0.

Shots
710
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
0.690.73
Possession
36%64%

Full time

What the match recorded

Udinese beat AS Roma 1–0. Recorded in this match (Udinese – AS Roma): shots 7–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 0.69–0.73, possession 36%–64%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Udinese's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Udinese's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.13 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.13 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Udinese show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Udinese's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsUdinese · AS Roma13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricUdineseAS RomaBaseline
Shots12 shots/match13.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match9.87 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Roma have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.7%PossessionUdinese · AS Roma● 58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricUdineseAS RomaBaseline
Possession45.7%58.2%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots10 shotsUdinese 7 shots, Roma 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsUdinese 4 shots, Roma 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.69 xG0.73 xGUdinese 0.69 xG, Roma 0.73 xG
  • Possession36%64%Udinese 36%, Roma 64%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersUdinese 4 corners, Roma 7 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls17 foulsUdinese 18 fouls, Roma 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards5 cards4 cardsUdinese 5 cards, Roma 4 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese · 8′ · 0.01 xG · on targetArthur Atta · Udinese · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGianluca Mancini · AS Roma · 5′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArthur Atta · Udinese · 8′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLennon Miller · Udinese · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetWesley · AS Roma · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWesley · AS Roma · 48′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese · 49′ · 0.04 xG · goalGianluca Mancini · AS Roma · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 29′ · 0.09 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · AS Roma · 70′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · AS Roma · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMatías Soulé · AS Roma · 62′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedOumar Solet · Udinese · 8′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Udinese: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.67 xG. AS Roma: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.73 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · Udinese · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Udinese 0.67 xG · AS Roma 0.73 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Udinese
0Draws
5Roma
Roma — Udinese · Serie A2–0
Udinese — Roma · Serie A1–2
Roma — Udinese · Serie A3–0
Udinese — Roma · Serie A1–2
Roma — Udinese · Serie A3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Udinese favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Roma in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Udinese23 matchesRoma23 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored23/231.17 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 0.61 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.36 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 13.6 shots/match
3.74 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 4.87 shots/match
45.7%Possession23/23● 58.2%
4.52 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5 corners/match
1.87 cards/matchCards23/231.96 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls23/2314.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 2 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsUdineseRoma
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headUdinese — Roma
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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