PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Stadio Ennio Tardini

Parma 1–4 Juventus · Serie A

Parma

LWDDL
1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Juventus won 1–4.

Shots
1115
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
0.554.03
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Juventus beat Parma 4–1. Recorded in this match (Parma – Juventus): shots 11–15, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 0.55–4.03, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.7 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsParma · Juventus16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaJuventusBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match9.87 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Juventus have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.3%PossessionParma · Juventus● 57.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaJuventusBaseline
Possession43.3%57.6%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots15 shotsParma 11 shots, Juventus 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsParma 4 shots, Juventus 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.55 xG4.03 xGParma 0.55 xG, Juventus 4.03 xG
  • Possession40%60%Parma 40%, Juventus 60%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersParma 5 corners, Juventus 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsParma 10 fouls, Juventus 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsParma 1 card, Juventus 3 cards

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Emanuele Valeri · Parma · 30′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 64′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKenan Yıldız · Juventus · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWeston McKennie · Juventus · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHans Nicolussi Caviglia · Parma · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGaetano Oristanio · Parma · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFilip Kostić · Juventus · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 50′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSascha Britschgi · Parma · 80′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBremer · Juventus · 15′ · 0.10 xG · goalMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 37′ · 0.11 xG · goalAndrea Cambiaso · Parma · 51′ · 0.13 xG · goalMateo Pellegrino · Parma · 85′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 1′ · 0.23 xG · on targetWeston McKennie · Juventus · 54′ · 0.26 xG · on targetFrancisco Conceição · Juventus · 6′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · Juventus · 83′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Juventus · 54′ · 0.83 xG · on targetBremer · Juventus · 54′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Parma: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.71 xG. Juventus: 14 shots, 7 on target, 3.24 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Andrea Cambiaso · Parma · 51′Bremer · Juventus · 15′Weston McKennie · Juventus · 37′Bremer · Juventus · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Parma 0.71 xG · Juventus 3.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Parma
1Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Parma · Serie A2–0
Parma — Juventus · Serie A1–0
Juventus — Parma · Serie A2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Parma favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Juventus in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Parma23 matchesJuventus23 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲ 1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 0.78 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.77 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots23/23▲ 16.2 shots/match
2.78 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲ 6 shots/match
43.3%Possession23/23● 57.6%
3.65 corners/matchCorners23/23● 5.26 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards23/231.35 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParmaJuventus
CompetitionSerie ASerie A 2025/26
Head-to-headParma — Juventus
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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