PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio Ennio TardiniFull-time recap

Parma

LWDDL
1–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricParmaJuventus
Shots10 shots/match15 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Possession39%61%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match
Yellow cards1 cards/match▲3 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Juventus's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Juventus's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.7 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Juventus show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Juventus's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsParma · Juventus16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParmaJuventusBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match16.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match9.83 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Juventus have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.2%▲PossessionParma · Juventus57.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParmaJuventusBaseline
Possession43.2%57.7%48.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Parma
0Draws
1Juventus
Juventus — Parma · Serie A2–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Parma favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Juventus in 10 · 4 too close

0.65 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 23/23▲1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 23/23▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 23/23▲16.2 shots/match
14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 23/23▲9.83 shots/match
2.78 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 23/23▲6 shots/match
4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 23/23▲2.7 shots/match
43.2%Possessionseason · 23/2357.7%
3.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 23/235.26 corners/match
4.7 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 23/23▲4 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCardsseason · 23/23▲1.35 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2313.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/23▲39%
48%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/23▲78%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Parma12.5
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Parma15.8
Juventus92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Parma28.3
Juventus88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Parma62.5
Juventus87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Parma25
Juventus23.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Parma25
Juventus82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Parma18.1
Juventus77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲3 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲0.4 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11 shots/matchShots5/5▲16.6 shots/match
2.2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8 shots/match
46.4%Possession5/559%
5 corners/matchCorners5/56.4 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/51 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲2.2 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲0.6 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.6 shots/matchShots10/10▲15.4 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲6.6 shots/match
44.5%Possession10/1056.6%
4.2 corners/matchCorners10/105.6 corners/match
1.5 cards/matchCards10/101 cards/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/1013.2 fouls/match

Window

Season

23 / 23 matches
0.65 goals/matchGoals scored23/23▲1.7 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲0.78 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.2 shots/matchShots23/23▲16.2 shots/match
2.78 shots/matchShots on target23/23▲6 shots/match
43.2%Possession23/2357.7%
3.65 corners/matchCorners23/235.26 corners/match
1.96 cards/matchCards23/231.35 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

12 / 12 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲1.33 goals/match
1.42 goals/matchGoals allowed12/12▲0.83 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
11.5 shots/matchShots12/12▲14.2 shots/match
2.5 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲4.92 shots/match
43.3%Possession12/1258.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners12/124.75 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards12/121.67 cards/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls12/1213.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.11 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Feb 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsParmaJuventus
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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