PitchMath
Serie A · 2025Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTCFull timeStadio OlimpicoFull-time recap

AS Roma

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1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAS RomaAC Milan
Shots15 shots/match▲5 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Possession58%42%
Corners5 corners/match3 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match11 fouls/match
Yellow cards0 cards/match▲4 cards/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

AC Milan have a visible away split

moderate

AC Milan's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

4.91 corners/match▲CornersAS Roma · AC Milan4.91 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricAS RomaAC MilanBaseline
Corners4.91 corners/match4.91 corners/match4.21 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0AS Roma
0Draws
1AC Milan
AC Milan — AS Roma · Serie A1–0

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

AS Roma favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · AC Milan in 3 · 7 too close

1.23 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.59 goals/match
0.59 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 22/220.77 goals/match
—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—
—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/2213.7 shots/match
10 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 22/2211.1 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 22/224.68 shots/match
3.59 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/223.55 shots/match
57.9%Possessionseason · 22/2251.3%
4.91 corners/matchCornersseason · 22/224.91 corners/match
3.23 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 22/224.59 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCardsseason · 22/22▲1.68 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/229.59 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
45%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2245%
73%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲95%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

AS Roma87.5
AC Milan57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

AS Roma74.2
AC Milan77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

AS Roma85.8
AC Milan76.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

AS Roma42.5
AC Milan82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

AS Roma60
AC Milan12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

AS Roma75
AC Milan75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

AS Roma79.4
AC Milan56.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
1.4 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.4 goals/match
0.4 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/50.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15 shots/matchShots5/515.4 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target5/54.6 shots/match
57.8%Possession5/550.4%
3.6 corners/matchCorners5/56.8 corners/match
1.2 cards/matchCards5/52.4 cards/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.2 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.7 goals/match
0.7 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/100.8 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.3 shots/matchShots10/10▲14.5 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/104.7 shots/match
57.1%Possession10/1052.7%
3.9 corners/matchCorners10/106 corners/match
1.8 cards/matchCards10/101.8 cards/match
14.6 fouls/matchFouls10/109.3 fouls/match

Window

Season

22 / 22 matches
1.23 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.59 goals/match
0.59 goals/match▲Goals allowed22/220.77 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
13.8 shots/matchShots22/2213.7 shots/match
4.95 shots/match▲Shots on target22/224.68 shots/match
57.9%Possession22/2251.3%
4.91 corners/matchCorners22/224.91 corners/match
1.86 cards/matchCards22/221.68 cards/match
14.5 fouls/matchFouls22/229.59 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

11 / 11 matches
1.27 goals/matchGoals scored11/11▲1.64 goals/match
0.55 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/110.73 goals/match
—Expected goals0/0—
15.5 shots/match▲Shots11/1110.5 shots/match
5.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/114 shots/match
58.9%Possession11/1149.2%
5.36 corners/matchCorners11/113.64 corners/match
1.64 cards/matchCards11/111.55 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls11/118.64 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.11 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Jan 2026, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAS RomaAC Milan
CompetitionSerie A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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