PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Atlético Bucaramanga vs Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.531.13
Expected goals
1.060.82
Shots
12.611.8
Possession
49.6%52.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atlético Bucaramanga's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Bucaramanga's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.53 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.53 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Bucaramanga favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Fortaleza CEIF in 2 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Bucaramanga30 matchesFortaleza CEIF32 matches
1.53 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/321.13 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed30/321.44 goals/match
1.06 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/280.82 xG/match
12.6 shots/match ▲Shots29/3211.8 shots/match
4.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/323.81 shots/match
49.6%Possession29/32● 52.7%
3.83 corners/matchCorners29/32● 4.09 corners/match
4.6 cards/matchCards5/123.75 cards/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls29/3212.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Atlético Bucaramanga
0Draws
1Fortaleza CEIF
Fortaleza CEIF — Atlético Bucaramanga · Primera A2–1

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 8 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético BucaramangaFortaleza CEIF
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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