PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.171.5
Expected goals
0.821.26
Shots
11.614.5
Possession
52.7%52.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: fortaleza CEIF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Fortaleza CEIF's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortaleza CEIF's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortaleza CEIF favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Independiente Medellín in 10 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortaleza CEIF30 matchesIndependiente Medellín30 matches
1.17 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.3 goals/match
0.82 xG/matchExpected goals26/25▲ 1.26 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 14.5 shots/match
3.77 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.9 shots/match
52.7%Possession30/30● 52.8%
4.23 corners/matchCorners30/30● 5.03 corners/match
3.82 cards/matchCards11/123.92 cards/match
12 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortaleza CEIF
0Draws
1Independiente Medellín
Independiente Medellín — Fortaleza CEIF · Primera A1–0

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 2 Nov 2026, 21:20 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortaleza CEIFIndependiente Medellín
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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