PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Birmingham City vs Millwall · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.88
Expected goals
1.661.91
Shots
13.414.8
Possession
48.4%44.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: birmingham City's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Birmingham City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Birmingham City's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Birmingham City favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Millwall in 5 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Birmingham City8 matchesMillwall8 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.88 goals/match
1.38 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.91 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.13 shots/match
48.4% ●Possession8/844.1%
6 corners/match ●Corners8/84.38 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls8/812.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Birmingham City
1Draws
2Millwall
Millwall — Birmingham City · Championship3–0
Birmingham City — Millwall · Championship4–0
Millwall — Birmingham City · Championship1–0
Birmingham City — Millwall · Championship1–1
Millwall — Birmingham City · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness45 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 3 Nov 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBirmingham CityMillwall
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBirmingham City — Millwall
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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