Millwall
Championship · 2026Millwall vs Derby County · Championship
Season
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
- Goals scored
- 1.88–0.88
- Expected goals
- 1.91–0.91
- Shots
- 14.8–12.3
- Possession
- 44.1%–49.4%
30-second read
What the record shows
The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 3 to Millwall, 2 drawn, 0 to Derby County. From this fixture's own record: millwall's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.
Millwall's recent record differs from the season
weakMillwall's last-five shots average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 12.2 shots/match | 14.8 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Millwall show a distinct attacking-volume record
moderateMillwall's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.
Window: season
| Metric | Millwall | Derby County | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 14.8 shots/match | 12.3 shots/match | 13.2 shots/match |
| Shots against | 14.3 shots/match | 15.1 shots/match | 12.7 shots/match |
Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.
Both teams have elevated fouls records
weakEach team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Millwall | Derby County | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12.9 fouls/match | 13.3 fouls/match | 11.4 fouls/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Millwall favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Derby County in 3
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
Millwall / Derby County
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
- The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
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