PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Norwich City vs Watford · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Watford

LLWLL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
20.88
Expected goals
1.470.86
Shots
14.911.5
Possession
53%46%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: norwich City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Watford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Watford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.88 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Norwich City show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Norwich City's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsNorwich City · Watford11.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNorwich CityWatfordBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match11.5 shots/match13.2 shots/match
Shots against12.4 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Norwich City favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Watford in 1 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Norwich City8 matchesWatford8 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/80.88 goals/match
2.13 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/80.86 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots8/811.5 shots/match
5.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/83.5 shots/match
53% ●Possession8/846%
4.75 corners/match ●Corners8/83.63 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls8/811.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Norwich City
0Draws
2Watford
Norwich City — Watford · Championship0–1
Watford — Norwich City · Championship3–2
Watford — Norwich City · Championship0–1
Norwich City — Watford · Championship4–1
Norwich City — Watford · Championship4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness43 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNorwich CityWatford
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headNorwich City — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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