PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.261.23
Expected goals
1.331.05
Shots
1412
Possession
56.1%52.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: deportivo Pasto's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Deportivo Pasto's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Pasto's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 1 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima35 matchesDeportivo Pasto31 matches
1.26 goals/matchGoals scored35/311.23 goals/match
0.91 goals/match ▲Goals allowed35/311.39 goals/match
1.33 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/251.05 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots33/3112 shots/match
4.82 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/313.68 shots/match
56.1% ●Possession33/3152.3%
5.15 corners/match ●Corners33/314.16 corners/match
3.67 cards/matchCards9/124.83 cards/match
10.6 fouls/matchFouls33/3111.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Deportes Tolima
0Draws
1Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto — Deportes Tolima · Primera A0–2
Deportes Tolima — Deportivo Pasto · Primera A1–0
Deportivo Pasto — Deportes Tolima · Primera A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples35 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headDeportes Tolima — Deportivo Pasto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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