PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto · Primera A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.231.15
Expected goals
1.281.03
Shots
1411.8
Possession
56%52.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: deportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Deportivo Pasto's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Deportivo Pasto's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Deportes Tolima have a visible home split

moderate

Deportes Tolima's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match14 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Deportes Tolima favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Deportivo Pasto in 0 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Deportes Tolima39 matchesDeportivo Pasto33 matches
1.23 goals/match ▲Goals scored39/331.15 goals/match
0.95 goals/match ▲Goals allowed39/331.39 goals/match
1.28 xG/match ▲Expected goals32/261.03 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots37/3211.8 shots/match
4.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target37/323.56 shots/match
56% ●Possession37/3252.2%
5.22 corners/match ●Corners37/324.13 corners/match
3.9 cards/matchCards10/124.83 cards/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls37/3211.9 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Deportes Tolima
0Draws
1Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto — Deportes Tolima · Primera A0–2
Deportes Tolima — Deportivo Pasto · Primera A1–0
Deportivo Pasto — Deportes Tolima · Primera A1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples39 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness21 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 01:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDeportes TolimaDeportivo Pasto
CompetitionPrimera A
Head-to-headDeportes Tolima — Deportivo Pasto
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required