Eredivisie · 2026

Sparta Rotterdam vs AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.433
Expected goals
1.632.62
Shots
13.124.7
Possession
45.4%64.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 0 to Sparta Rotterdam, 3 drawn, 2 to AFC Ajax. From this fixture's own record: AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.1 shots/match ▲ShotsSparta Rotterdam · AFC Ajax24.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSparta RotterdamAFC AjaxBaseline
Shots13.1 shots/match24.7 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against18 shots/match9.57 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6 corners/matchCornersSparta Rotterdam · AFC Ajax● 8 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricSparta RotterdamAFC AjaxBaseline
Corners6 corners/match8 corners/match4.71 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.4%PossessionSparta Rotterdam · AFC Ajax● 64.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSparta RotterdamAFC AjaxBaseline
Possession45.4%64.4%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Sparta Rotterdam favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 13

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Sparta Rotterdam7 matchesAFC Ajax7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 3 goals/match
2.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.29 goals/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 2.62 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 24.7 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 8.14 shots/match
45.4%Possession7/7● 64.4%
6 corners/matchCorners7/7● 8 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls7/78.71 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Sparta Rotterdam
3Draws
2AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie4–0
Sparta Rotterdam — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie3–3
AFC Ajax — Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie1–1
Sparta Rotterdam — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–2
Sparta Rotterdam — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 15:45 UTC · analysis-v4

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