PitchMath
UEFA Conference League · 2026

AFC Ajax vs Atalanta · UEFA Conference League

vsPre-match analysis

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxAtalantaBaseline
Shots25 shots/match—17.5 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match—11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

  • Rest before fixture · Both teams: 56 days
  • Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches

AFC Ajax / Atalanta

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 2home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 2last-five windows
Freshness56 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
  • Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: goals_for, goals_against, xg_for, xg_against, shots, shots_on_target, possession, corners, cards, fouls.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 22 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAFC AjaxAtalanta
CompetitionUEFA Conference League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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