PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.632.5
Expected goals
1.531.63
Shots
14.314.8
Possession
58.4%49.8%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: NEC Nijmegen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: NEC Nijmegen have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

NEC Nijmegen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.63 goals/match1.75 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Groningen have a visible away split

weak

FC Groningen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match14.8 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

NEC Nijmegen have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.4% ●PossessionNEC Nijmegen · FC Groningen49.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNEC NijmegenFC GroningenBaseline
Possession58.4%49.8%48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NEC Nijmegen favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · FC Groningen in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NEC Nijmegen8 matchesFC Groningen8 matches
1.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 2.5 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.63 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots8/814.8 shots/match
3.88 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5.88 shots/match
58.4% ●Possession8/849.8%
4.88 corners/match ●Corners8/84.63 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls8/88.63 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3NEC Nijmegen
0Draws
2FC Groningen
FC Groningen — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie2–1
NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen · Eredivisie2–0
FC Groningen — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie2–1
NEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen · Eredivisie6–0
FC Groningen — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness15 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNEC NijmegenFC Groningen
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headNEC Nijmegen — FC Groningen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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