PitchMath
Primera A · 2026

Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros FC · Primera A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Once Caldas won 1–0.

Shots
1510
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
0.71.55
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Once Caldas beat Llaneros FC 1–0. Recorded in this match (Once Caldas – Llaneros FC): shots 15–10, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 0.7–1.55, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Once Caldas's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Once Caldas's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.4 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Once Caldas show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Once Caldas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsOnce Caldas · Llaneros FC10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasLlaneros FCBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against13.6 shots/match12.8 shots/match11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.12 corners/match ●CornersOnce Caldas · Llaneros FC4.94 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricOnce CaldasLlaneros FCBaseline
Corners5.12 corners/match4.94 corners/match4.45 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots10 shotsOnce Caldas 15 shots, Llaneros FC 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsOnce Caldas 4 shots, Llaneros FC 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.7 xG1.55 xGOnce Caldas 0.7 xG, Llaneros FC 1.55 xG
  • Possession60%40%Once Caldas 60%, Llaneros FC 40%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersOnce Caldas 5 corners, Llaneros FC 4 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls11 foulsOnce Caldas 14 fouls, Llaneros FC 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsOnce Caldas 2 cards, Llaneros FC 3 cards
  • Passes460 passes295 passesOnce Caldas 460 passes, Llaneros FC 295 passes
  • Pass accuracy88.9%82%Once Caldas 88.9%, Llaneros FC 82%
  • Shots inside box9 shots5 shotsOnce Caldas 9 shots, Llaneros FC 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks1 blockOnce Caldas 4 blocks, Llaneros FC 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves3 savesOnce Caldas 5 saves, Llaneros FC 3 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesOnce Caldas 3 offsides, Llaneros FC 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Once Caldas
1Draws
0Llaneros FC
Llaneros FC — Once Caldas · Primera A1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Once Caldas favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Llaneros FC in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Once Caldas35 matchesLlaneros FC33 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored35/330.97 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed35/331.12 goals/match
1.07 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/250.94 xG/match
14.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/3210.6 shots/match
5.61 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/323.81 shots/match
53.6% ●Possession33/3246.2%
5.12 corners/match ●Corners33/324.94 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards9/94 cards/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls33/3210.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples35 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 05:10 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Primera A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOnce CaldasLlaneros FC
CompetitionPrimera A
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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