PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

São Paulo vs Santos · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Santos

WDWWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.21.48
Expected goals
1.241.44
Shots
13.613.3
Possession
54.3%49.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Lineup availability and tactical choices are not in the retained data.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 4 · 3 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo25 matchesSantos25 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.48 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.48 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals21/21▲ 1.44 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots25/2513.3 shots/match
4.28 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.96 shots/match
54.3% ●Possession25/2549.6%
6.92 corners/match ●Corners25/255.32 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/63 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2513 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2São Paulo
2Draws
1Santos
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A1–1
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
São Paulo — Santos · Serie A2–1
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A0–0
São Paulo — Santos · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness20 daysfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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