PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

São Paulo 1–2 Santos · Serie A

1–2Full-time analysis

Santos

DWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Santos won 1–2.

Shots
209
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
1.830.6
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Santos beat São Paulo 2–1. Recorded in this match (São Paulo – Santos): shots 20–9, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 1.83–0.6, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots9 shotsSão Paulo 20 shots, Santos 9 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsSão Paulo 8 shots, Santos 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.83 xG0.6 xGSão Paulo 1.83 xG, Santos 0.6 xG
  • Possession60%40%São Paulo 60%, Santos 40%
  • Corners14 corners1 cornerSão Paulo 14 corners, Santos 1 corner
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsSão Paulo 13 fouls, Santos 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card3 cardsSão Paulo 1 card, Santos 3 cards
  • Passes564 passes403 passesSão Paulo 564 passes, Santos 403 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%80.4%São Paulo 86%, Santos 80.4%
  • Shots inside box14 shots4 shotsSão Paulo 14 shots, Santos 4 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks2 blocksSão Paulo 6 blocks, Santos 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves7 savesSão Paulo 2 saves, Santos 7 saves

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2São Paulo
2Draws
1Santos
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A1–1
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
São Paulo — Santos · Serie A2–1
Santos — São Paulo · Serie A0–0
São Paulo — Santos · Serie A4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: São Paulo favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

São Paulo27 matchesSantos27 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored27/27▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.44 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals23/23▲ 1.38 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots27/2713 shots/match
4.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.96 shots/match
54.1% ●Possession27/2749.3%
7.04 corners/match ●Corners27/275.11 corners/match
1.6 cards/matchCards5/73.14 cards/match
14.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2712.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSão PauloSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSão Paulo — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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