PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Santos vs Flamengo · Serie A

Santos

WDWWW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.482.04
Expected goals
1.441.6
Shots
13.315.9
Possession
49.6%56.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: flamengo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Flamengo have a visible away split

moderate

Flamengo's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match15.9 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Santos favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Flamengo in 12 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Santos25 matchesFlamengo25 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 2.04 goals/match
1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 0.8 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals21/22▲ 1.6 xG/match
13.3 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 15.9 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.28 shots/match
49.6%Possession25/25● 56.4%
5.32 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.48 corners/match
3 cards/matchCards6/42.5 cards/match
13 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Santos
0Draws
3Flamengo
Flamengo — Santos · Serie A3–1
Flamengo — Santos · Serie A3–2
Santos — Flamengo · Serie A1–0
Flamengo — Santos · Serie A1–2
Santos — Flamengo · Serie A2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness25 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSantosFlamengo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headSantos — Flamengo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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