PitchMath
Serie A · 2026Ligga Arena

Athletico vs Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.561.32
Expected goals
1.361.32
Shots
12.613.3
Possession
46.4%49.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Atletico Paranaense's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atletico Paranaense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.56 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.56 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 3 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico25 matchesAtlético Mineiro25 matches
1.56 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.32 goals/match
1.24 goals/matchGoals allowed25/251.2 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.32 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.3 shots/match
5.08 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.44 shots/match
46.4%Possession25/25● 49.3%
4.84 corners/match ●Corners25/254.8 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/42 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2511.6 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Athletico
1Draws
3Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A2–1
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–1
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness26 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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