PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atlético Mineiro 1–0 Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 1–0.

Shots
823
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
0.51.27
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Mineiro beat Red Bull Bragantino 1–0. Recorded in this match (Atlético Mineiro – Red Bull Bragantino): shots 8–23, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 0.5–1.27, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Red Bull Bragantino's recent record differs from the season

weak

Red Bull Bragantino's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.22 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Red Bull Bragantino show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Red Bull Bragantino's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAtlético Mineiro · Red Bull Bragantino16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAtlético MineiroRed Bull BragantinoBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match16.1 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots23 shotsAtlético Mineiro 8 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 23 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsAtlético Mineiro 3 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG1.27 xGAtlético Mineiro 0.5 xG, Red Bull Bragantino 1.27 xG
  • Possession40%60%Atlético Mineiro 40%, Red Bull Bragantino 60%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersAtlético Mineiro 5 corners, Red Bull Bragantino 10 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsAtlético Mineiro 16 fouls, Red Bull Bragantino 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card1 cardAtlético Mineiro 1 card, Red Bull Bragantino 1 card
  • Passes321 passes477 passesAtlético Mineiro 321 passes, Red Bull Bragantino 477 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.8%85.5%Atlético Mineiro 78.8%, Red Bull Bragantino 85.5%
  • Shots inside box4 shots13 shotsAtlético Mineiro 4 shots, Red Bull Bragantino 13 shots
  • Blocked shots0 blocks7 blocksAtlético Mineiro 0 blocks, Red Bull Bragantino 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves2 savesAtlético Mineiro 7 saves, Red Bull Bragantino 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides0 offsidesAtlético Mineiro 3 offsides, Red Bull Bragantino 0 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Atlético Mineiro
0Draws
2Red Bull Bragantino
Red Bull Bragantino — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Red Bull Bragantino — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Atlético Mineiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A3–0
Red Bull Bragantino — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Red Bull Bragantino in 4 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro27 matchesRed Bull Bragantino27 matches
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271.22 goals/match
1.15 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.19 goals/match
1.32 xG/matchExpected goals23/231.37 xG/match
13.6 shots/matchShots27/27▲ 16.1 shots/match
4.63 shots/matchShots on target27/27▲ 5.19 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession27/2749.6%
5 corners/matchCorners27/27● 5.74 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/54.8 cards/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2714 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 4 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroRed Bull Bragantino
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Red Bull Bragantino
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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