PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Athletico 2–2 Atlético Mineiro · Serie A

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Athletico and Atlético Mineiro drew 2–2.

Shots
3115
Shots on target
109
Expected goals
2.481.5
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletico and Atlético Mineiro drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Athletico – Atlético Mineiro): shots 31–15, shots on target 10–9, expected goals 2.48–1.5, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletico's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletico's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletico have a visible home split

moderate

Athletico's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots31 shots15 shotsAthletico 31 shots, Atlético Mineiro 15 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots9 shotsAthletico 10 shots, Atlético Mineiro 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.48 xG1.5 xGAthletico 2.48 xG, Atlético Mineiro 1.5 xG
  • Possession51%49%Athletico 51%, Atlético Mineiro 49%
  • Corners10 corners3 cornersAthletico 10 corners, Atlético Mineiro 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsAthletico 13 fouls, Atlético Mineiro 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards2 cardsAthletico 0 cards, Atlético Mineiro 2 cards
  • Passes500 passes488 passesAthletico 500 passes, Atlético Mineiro 488 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%87.3%Athletico 88%, Atlético Mineiro 87.3%
  • Shots inside box17 shots7 shotsAthletico 17 shots, Atlético Mineiro 7 shots
  • Blocked shots8 blocks1 blockAthletico 8 blocks, Atlético Mineiro 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves7 saves8 savesAthletico 7 saves, Atlético Mineiro 8 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideAthletico 0 offsides, Atlético Mineiro 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Athletico
1Draws
3Atlético Mineiro
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A2–1
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Athletico — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–1
Atlético Mineiro — Athletico · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletico favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Mineiro in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletico27 matchesAtlético Mineiro28 matches
1.59 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/281.32 goals/match
1.26 goals/matchGoals allowed27/28▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals23/241.33 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots27/2813.6 shots/match
5.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/284.79 shots/match
46.7%Possession27/28● 49.6%
5.07 corners/match ●Corners27/284.93 corners/match
1.83 cards/matchCards6/52.2 cards/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls27/2811.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthleticoAtlético Mineiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAthletico — Atlético Mineiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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