PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia · Serie A

1–0Full-time analysis

Bahia

WWWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 1–0.

Shots
2610
Shots on target
111
Expected goals
1.910.51
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Bahia 1–0. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Bahia): shots 26–10, shots on target 11–1, expected goals 1.91–0.51, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.31 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots26 shots10 shotsPalmeiras 26 shots, Bahia 10 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots1 shotPalmeiras 11 shots, Bahia 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.91 xG0.51 xGPalmeiras 1.91 xG, Bahia 0.51 xG
  • Possession41%59%Palmeiras 41%, Bahia 59%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersPalmeiras 7 corners, Bahia 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls12 foulsPalmeiras 9 fouls, Bahia 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsPalmeiras 1 card, Bahia 2 cards
  • Passes363 passes543 passesPalmeiras 363 passes, Bahia 543 passes
  • Pass accuracy82.9%90.1%Palmeiras 82.9%, Bahia 90.1%
  • Shots inside box16 shots3 shotsPalmeiras 16 shots, Bahia 3 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks5 blocksPalmeiras 3 blocks, Bahia 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save10 savesPalmeiras 1 save, Bahia 10 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsidePalmeiras 1 offside, Bahia 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Palmeiras
0Draws
2Bahia
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–0
Palmeiras — Bahia · Serie A0–1
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Palmeiras — Bahia · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 1 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras27 matchesBahia27 matches
1.59 goals/matchGoals scored27/271.56 goals/match
0.7 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/271.3 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals23/24▲ 1.66 xG/match
15.1 shots/matchShots27/2714.6 shots/match
5.07 shots/matchShots on target27/275.19 shots/match
51.3%Possession27/27● 55%
6.11 corners/match ●Corners27/275.67 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/34 cards/match
13.9 fouls/matchFouls27/2714 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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