PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Palmeiras vs Bahia · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Bahia

DWWWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.681.64
Expected goals
1.041.74
Shots
1415
Possession
50.9%55.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Alongside it: each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Bahia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bahia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.64 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.6 goals/match1.64 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.96 corners/match ●CornersPalmeiras · Bahia5.88 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricPalmeirasBahiaBaseline
Corners5.96 corners/match5.88 corners/match5.28 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Bahia in 4 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras25 matchesBahia25 matches
1.68 goals/matchGoals scored25/251.64 goals/match
0.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.28 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals21/22▲ 1.74 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 15 shots/match
4.64 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.44 shots/match
50.9%Possession25/25● 55.1%
5.96 corners/match ●Corners25/255.88 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/34 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.2 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Palmeiras
0Draws
2Bahia
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–0
Palmeiras — Bahia · Serie A0–1
Bahia — Palmeiras · Serie A1–2
Palmeiras — Bahia · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness26 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasBahia
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Bahia
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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