PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Bahia 1–0 Mirassol · Serie A

Bahia

WWWLL
1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Bahia won 1–0.

Shots
1610
Shots on target
22
Expected goals
3.151.82
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0. Recorded in this match (Bahia – Mirassol): shots 16–10, shots on target 2–2, expected goals 3.15–1.82, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bahia, Mirassol.

2.92 days ▲Rest daysBahia · Mirassol4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBahiaMirassolBaseline
Rest days2.92 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Mirassol's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Mirassol's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Mirassol have a visible away split

moderate

Mirassol's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.1 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots10 shotsBahia 16 shots, Mirassol 10 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots2 shotsBahia 2 shots, Mirassol 2 shots
  • Expected goals3.15 xG1.82 xGBahia 3.15 xG, Mirassol 1.82 xG
  • Possession53%47%Bahia 53%, Mirassol 47%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersBahia 6 corners, Mirassol 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls16 foulsBahia 13 fouls, Mirassol 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card4 cardsBahia 1 card, Mirassol 4 cards
  • Passes510 passes457 passesBahia 510 passes, Mirassol 457 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.4%88%Bahia 89.4%, Mirassol 88%
  • Shots inside box12 shots8 shotsBahia 12 shots, Mirassol 8 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks3 blocksBahia 2 blocks, Mirassol 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveBahia 2 saves, Mirassol 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideBahia 1 offside, Mirassol 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Bahia
1Draws
1Mirassol
Mirassol — Bahia · Serie A1–2
Mirassol — Bahia · Serie A5–1
Bahia — Mirassol · Serie A1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bahia favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Mirassol in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bahia28 matchesMirassol28 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.11 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.5 goals/match
1.72 xG/match ▲Expected goals25/251.08 xG/match
14.7 shots/match ▲Shots28/2813.6 shots/match
5.07 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/284.43 shots/match
55% ●Possession28/2849.9%
5.68 corners/match ●Corners28/285.21 corners/match
4 cards/matchCards3/53 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 02:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBahiaMirassol
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBahia — Mirassol
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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