Flamengo vs Fluminense — Stats & Match Analysis

Serie A · 2026Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC

Flamengo

LWWWW

vsPre-match analysis

Fluminense

WWDWL

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored: 2.041.6
Expected goals: 1.61.25
Shots: 15.914.7
Possession: 56.4%59.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: flamengo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Alongside it: fluminense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Fluminense's recent record differs from the season

weak

Fluminense's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.6 goals/match	1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Flamengo have a visible home split

moderate

Flamengo's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.6 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	18.6 shots/match	15.9 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Flamengo favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Fluminense in 1 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Flamengo25 matchesFluminense25 matches

2.04 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.6 goals/match

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.36 goals/match

1.6 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/211.25 xG/match

15.9 shots/match ▲Shots25/2514.7 shots/match

5.28 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.56 shots/match

56.4%Possession25/25● 59.1%

5.48 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.76 corners/match

2.5 cards/matchCards4/53.4 cards/match

11.6 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Flamengo

0Draws

2Fluminense

12 Apr 2026Fluminense — Flamengo · Serie A1–2

20 Nov 2025Fluminense — Flamengo · Serie A2–1

20 Jul 2025Flamengo — Fluminense · Serie A1–0

17 Oct 2024Flamengo — Fluminense · Serie A0–2

23 Jun 2024Fluminense — Flamengo · Serie A0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited

Season samples25 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

Freshness29 daysstale at cutoff

At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match ranking xG per match ranking Shots per match ranking

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Season

What the record shows