PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Palmeiras vs Corinthians · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.681.08
Expected goals
1.040.93
Shots
1412.4
Possession
50.9%54.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: corinthians's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Corinthians's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Corinthians's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Corinthians in 2 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras25 matchesCorinthians25 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.08 goals/match
0.76 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.12 goals/match
1.04 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/210.93 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots25/2512.4 shots/match
4.64 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/253.6 shots/match
50.9%Possession25/25● 54.6%
5.96 corners/match ●Corners25/254.8 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/43.5 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Palmeiras
2Draws
2Corinthians
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Serie A0–0
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Palmeiras — Corinthians · Copa do Brasil0–2
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil1–0
Palmeiras — Corinthians · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness29 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasCorinthians
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Corinthians
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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