PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians · Serie A

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Palmeiras won 4–1.

Shots
2212
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
2.60.71
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4–1. Recorded in this match (Palmeiras – Corinthians): shots 22–12, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 2.6–0.71, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Palmeiras's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Palmeiras's last-five shots average is above their season average.

23 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots23 shots/match15.3 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Palmeiras, Corinthians.

2.83 days ▲Rest daysPalmeiras · Corinthians3.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPalmeirasCorinthiansBaseline
Rest days2.83 days3.92 days—
Matches last 14 days1 match1 match—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots12 shotsPalmeiras 22 shots, Corinthians 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsPalmeiras 8 shots, Corinthians 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.6 xG0.71 xGPalmeiras 2.6 xG, Corinthians 0.71 xG
  • Possession55%45%Palmeiras 55%, Corinthians 45%
  • Corners7 corners3 cornersPalmeiras 7 corners, Corinthians 3 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls11 foulsPalmeiras 17 fouls, Corinthians 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards4 cardsPalmeiras 3 cards, Corinthians 4 cards
  • Passes454 passes374 passesPalmeiras 454 passes, Corinthians 374 passes
  • Pass accuracy86.6%83.4%Palmeiras 86.6%, Corinthians 83.4%
  • Shots inside box14 shots10 shotsPalmeiras 14 shots, Corinthians 10 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks3 blocksPalmeiras 6 blocks, Corinthians 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesPalmeiras 2 saves, Corinthians 5 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsidePalmeiras 2 offsides, Corinthians 1 offside

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Palmeiras
2Draws
2Corinthians
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Serie A0–0
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Serie A1–1
Palmeiras — Corinthians · Copa do Brasil0–2
Corinthians — Palmeiras · Copa do Brasil1–0
Palmeiras — Corinthians · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Palmeiras favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Corinthians in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Palmeiras28 matchesCorinthians28 matches
1.68 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/281.07 goals/match
0.71 goals/match ▲Goals allowed28/281.32 goals/match
1.2 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.04 xG/match
15.3 shots/match ▲Shots28/2813 shots/match
5.18 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/283.82 shots/match
51.4%Possession28/28● 55%
6.14 corners/match ●Corners28/285.21 corners/match
2.57 cards/matchCards7/43.5 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls28/2813.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPalmeirasCorinthians
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headPalmeiras — Corinthians
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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