PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atlético Mineiro vs Santos · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Santos

DWWWW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.311.5
Expected goals
1.361.42
Shots
13.813.2
Possession
50%49.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: atlético Mineiro's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Alongside it: santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Santos's recent record differs from the season

weak

Santos's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Atlético Mineiro have a visible home split

moderate

Atlético Mineiro's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 4 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro26 matchesSantos26 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/261.46 goals/match
1.36 xG/matchExpected goals22/221.42 xG/match
13.8 shots/matchShots26/2613.2 shots/match
4.69 shots/match ▲Shots on target26/263.96 shots/match
50% ●Possession26/2649.7%
5 corners/matchCorners26/26● 5.27 corners/match
2 cards/matchCards4/73.14 cards/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls26/2613 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
2Draws
2Santos
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A1–1
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A2–0
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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