PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Atlético Mineiro 2–1 Santos · Serie A

2–1Full-time analysis

Santos

WWWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Atlético Mineiro won 2–1.

Shots
2110
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
1.441.12
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Atlético Mineiro beat Santos 2–1. Recorded in this match (Atlético Mineiro – Santos): shots 21–10, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 1.44–1.12, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Atlético Mineiro's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Atlético Mineiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.34 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.34 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Mineiro, Santos.

2.83 days ▲Rest daysAtlético Mineiro · Santos2.85 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAtlético MineiroSantosBaseline
Rest days2.83 days2.85 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots10 shotsAtlético Mineiro 21 shots, Santos 10 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsAtlético Mineiro 5 shots, Santos 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.44 xG1.12 xGAtlético Mineiro 1.44 xG, Santos 1.12 xG
  • Possession50%50%Atlético Mineiro 50%, Santos 50%
  • Corners12 corners3 cornersAtlético Mineiro 12 corners, Santos 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsAtlético Mineiro 10 fouls, Santos 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards5 cardsAtlético Mineiro 3 cards, Santos 5 cards
  • Passes549 passes553 passesAtlético Mineiro 549 passes, Santos 553 passes
  • Pass accuracy88%86.6%Atlético Mineiro 88%, Santos 86.6%
  • Shots inside box18 shots5 shotsAtlético Mineiro 18 shots, Santos 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksAtlético Mineiro 4 blocks, Santos 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves4 savesAtlético Mineiro 2 saves, Santos 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesAtlético Mineiro 1 offside, Santos 3 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Atlético Mineiro
2Draws
2Santos
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A1–0
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A1–1
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A2–0
Atlético Mineiro — Santos · Serie A2–0
Santos — Atlético Mineiro · Serie A0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Atlético Mineiro favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Santos in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Atlético Mineiro29 matchesSantos29 matches
1.34 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.48 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.41 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots29/2913 shots/match
4.79 shots/match ▲Shots on target29/293.93 shots/match
49.6% ●Possession29/2949.2%
5.17 corners/match ●Corners29/295.03 corners/match
2.2 cards/matchCards5/83.5 cards/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls29/2913 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAtlético MineiroSantos
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headAtlético Mineiro — Santos
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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