PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Red Bull Bragantino vs Cruzeiro · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.281.52
Expected goals
1.41.42
Shots
15.914.2
Possession
49.8%54.9%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Cruzeiro's recent record differs from the season

weak

Cruzeiro's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.52 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.52 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Red Bull Bragantino favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Cruzeiro in 4 · 5 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Red Bull Bragantino25 matchesCruzeiro25 matches
1.28 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.16 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.52 goals/match
1.4 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.42 xG/match
15.9 shots/match ▲Shots25/2514.2 shots/match
5.12 shots/matchShots on target25/254.88 shots/match
49.8%Possession25/25● 54.9%
5.6 corners/match ●Corners25/255.24 corners/match
4.8 cards/matchCards5/42.75 cards/match
14.2 fouls/matchFouls25/2514 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Red Bull Bragantino
1Draws
3Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1
Red Bull Bragantino — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–0
Red Bull Bragantino — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — Red Bull Bragantino · Serie A2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness29 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRed Bull BragantinoCruzeiro
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headRed Bull Bragantino — Cruzeiro
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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