PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro vs São Paulo · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.521.2
Expected goals
1.421.24
Shots
14.213.6
Possession
54.9%54.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: são Paulo's last-five shots average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

São Paulo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

São Paulo's last-five shots average is above their season average.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 6 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro25 matchesSão Paulo25 matches
1.52 goals/match ▲Goals scored25/251.2 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.16 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/211.24 xG/match
14.2 shots/matchShots25/2513.6 shots/match
4.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target25/254.28 shots/match
54.9% ●Possession25/2554.3%
5.24 corners/matchCorners25/25● 6.92 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/51.6 cards/match
14 fouls/matchFouls25/2514.3 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cruzeiro
1Draws
3São Paulo
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A4–1
Cruzeiro — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — São Paulo · Serie A0–1
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness25 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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