PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Cruzeiro 2–0 São Paulo · Serie A

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Cruzeiro won 2–0.

Shots
2219
Shots on target
93
Expected goals
2.741.06
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Cruzeiro beat São Paulo 2–0. Recorded in this match (Cruzeiro – São Paulo): shots 22–19, shots on target 9–3, expected goals 2.74–1.06, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

São Paulo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

São Paulo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.14 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots19 shotsCruzeiro 22 shots, São Paulo 19 shots
  • Shots on target9 shots3 shotsCruzeiro 9 shots, São Paulo 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.74 xG1.06 xGCruzeiro 2.74 xG, São Paulo 1.06 xG
  • Possession54%46%Cruzeiro 54%, São Paulo 46%
  • Corners8 corners8 cornersCruzeiro 8 corners, São Paulo 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls20 foulsCruzeiro 12 fouls, São Paulo 20 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards1 cardCruzeiro 2 cards, São Paulo 1 card
  • Passes473 passes385 passesCruzeiro 473 passes, São Paulo 385 passes
  • Pass accuracy85.4%83.4%Cruzeiro 85.4%, São Paulo 83.4%
  • Shots inside box14 shots11 shotsCruzeiro 14 shots, São Paulo 11 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks7 blocksCruzeiro 5 blocks, São Paulo 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves7 savesCruzeiro 3 saves, São Paulo 7 saves
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesCruzeiro 1 offside, São Paulo 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Cruzeiro
1Draws
3São Paulo
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A4–1
Cruzeiro — São Paulo · Serie A1–0
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A1–1
Cruzeiro — São Paulo · Serie A0–1
São Paulo — Cruzeiro · Serie A2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Cruzeiro favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · São Paulo in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Cruzeiro27 matchesSão Paulo28 matches
1.59 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/281.14 goals/match
1.44 goals/matchGoals allowed27/28▲ 1.18 goals/match
1.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/241.25 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots27/2813.7 shots/match
5.04 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/284.25 shots/match
54.9% ●Possession27/2853.9%
5.22 corners/matchCorners27/28● 7.07 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/51.6 cards/match
14.1 fouls/matchFouls27/2814.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 04:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCruzeiroSão Paulo
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headCruzeiro — São Paulo
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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