PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Vitória 4–0 Chapecoense · Serie A

4–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vitória won 4–0.

Shots
2011
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
2.670.38
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vitória beat Chapecoense 4–0. Recorded in this match (Vitória – Chapecoense): shots 20–11, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 2.67–0.38, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vitória's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vitória's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.19 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.19 goals/match1.26 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vitória have a visible home split

moderate

Vitória's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots11 shotsVitória 20 shots, Chapecoense 11 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsVitória 8 shots, Chapecoense 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.67 xG0.38 xGVitória 2.67 xG, Chapecoense 0.38 xG
  • Possession52%48%Vitória 52%, Chapecoense 48%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersVitória 3 corners, Chapecoense 6 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls17 foulsVitória 8 fouls, Chapecoense 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsVitória 2 cards, Chapecoense 3 cards
  • Passes498 passes451 passesVitória 498 passes, Chapecoense 451 passes
  • Pass accuracy89.4%84.9%Vitória 89.4%, Chapecoense 84.9%
  • Shots inside box14 shots3 shotsVitória 14 shots, Chapecoense 3 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks4 blocksVitória 4 blocks, Chapecoense 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesVitória 4 saves, Chapecoense 4 saves

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Vitória
1Draws
1Chapecoense
Chapecoense — Vitória · Serie A1–1
Chapecoense — Vitória · Serie B3–1
Vitória — Chapecoense · Serie B1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Vitória favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Chapecoense in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Vitória27 matchesChapecoense27 matches
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/271 goal/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/272.04 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals24/240.94 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots27/2712.9 shots/match
4.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/273.44 shots/match
44.1% ●Possession27/2742.9%
4.3 corners/match ●Corners27/274.04 corners/match
2.75 cards/matchCards4/31.33 cards/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 03:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVitóriaChapecoense
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headVitória — Chapecoense
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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