PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama · Serie A

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.481.12
Expected goals
1.341.37
Shots
14.417.2
Possession
47.3%53.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The story here is recent context rather than season averages: botafogo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: vasco da Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Botafogo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Botafogo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vasco da Gama show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vasco da Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsBotafogo · Vasco da Gama17.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBotafogoVasco da GamaBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.8 shots/match
Shots against15.1 shots/match12.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Vasco da Gama in 6 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo27 matchesVasco da Gama25 matches
1.48 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/251.12 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed27/251.6 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals24/211.37 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots27/25▲ 17.2 shots/match
5.22 shots/matchShots on target27/255.2 shots/match
47.3%Possession27/25● 53.2%
4.48 corners/matchCorners27/25● 5.32 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards7/41.75 cards/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls27/2513.1 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Botafogo
2Draws
0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Serie A1–2
Botafogo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A3–0
Botafogo — Vasco da Gama · Copa do Brasil1–1
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Copa do Brasil1–1
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness25 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 7 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoVasco da Gama
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Vasco da Gama
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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