PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Botafogo 1–2 Vasco da Gama · Serie A

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Vasco da Gama won 1–2.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
0.611.69
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Vasco da Gama beat Botafogo 2–1. Recorded in this match (Botafogo – Vasco da Gama): shots 11–17, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 0.61–1.69, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Vasco da Gama's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Vasco da Gama's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.3 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.3 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Vasco da Gama show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Vasco da Gama's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBotafogo · Vasco da Gama17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBotafogoVasco da GamaBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsBotafogo 11 shots, Vasco da Gama 17 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shotsBotafogo 2 shots, Vasco da Gama 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.61 xG1.69 xGBotafogo 0.61 xG, Vasco da Gama 1.69 xG
  • Possession46%54%Botafogo 46%, Vasco da Gama 54%
  • Corners7 corners14 cornersBotafogo 7 corners, Vasco da Gama 14 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls12 foulsBotafogo 10 fouls, Vasco da Gama 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsBotafogo 1 card, Vasco da Gama 0 cards
  • Passes366 passes434 passesBotafogo 366 passes, Vasco da Gama 434 passes
  • Pass accuracy81.2%84.6%Botafogo 81.2%, Vasco da Gama 84.6%
  • Shots inside box6 shots8 shotsBotafogo 6 shots, Vasco da Gama 8 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks3 blocksBotafogo 3 blocks, Vasco da Gama 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves1 saveBotafogo 5 saves, Vasco da Gama 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides2 offsidesBotafogo 3 offsides, Vasco da Gama 2 offsides

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Botafogo
2Draws
0Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Serie A1–2
Botafogo — Vasco da Gama · Serie A3–0
Botafogo — Vasco da Gama · Copa do Brasil1–1
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Copa do Brasil1–1
Vasco da Gama — Botafogo · Serie A0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Botafogo favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Vasco da Gama in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Botafogo28 matchesVasco da Gama27 matches
1.46 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/271.3 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed28/27▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals25/23▲ 1.5 xG/match
14.3 shots/matchShots28/27▲ 17.7 shots/match
5.11 shots/matchShots on target28/27▲ 5.52 shots/match
47.2%Possession28/27● 53.7%
4.57 corners/matchCorners28/27● 5.89 corners/match
3.14 cards/matchCards7/41.75 cards/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls28/2712.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — ready
Season samples28 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 03:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBotafogoVasco da Gama
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headBotafogo — Vasco da Gama
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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