PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal · Premier League

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
12
Expected goals
1.381.73
Shots
14.513.5
Possession
43.3%59.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Arsenal have recorded the higher season possession share.

43.3%PossessionNottingham Forest · Arsenal● 59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestArsenalBaseline
Possession43.3%59.5%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsNottingham Forest · Arsenal13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestArsenalBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match9 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest4 matchesArsenal4 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 2 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 0.25 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.73 xG/match
14.5 shots/match ▲Shots4/413.5 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 5.5 shots/match
43.3%Possession4/4● 59.5%
2.75 corners/matchCorners4/4● 4.75 corners/match
15.5 fouls/matchFouls4/410 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nottingham Forest
2Draws
3Arsenal
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League0–0
Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League0–0
Arsenal — Nottingham Forest · Premier League3–0
Nottingham Forest — Arsenal · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
Freshness36 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Arsenal
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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