PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Derby County vs Stoke City · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
0.881.63
Expected goals
0.910.93
Shots
12.311.9
Possession
49.4%46.5%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 2 to Derby County, 1 drawn, 2 to Stoke City. From this fixture's own record: each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

Stoke City's recent record differs from the season

weak

Stoke City's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.63 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsDerby County · Stoke City15.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricDerby CountyStoke CityBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match15.4 fouls/match11.4 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Derby County favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 9 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Derby County8 matchesStoke City8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.63 goals/match
1.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 1.5 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals8/80.93 xG/match
12.3 shots/matchShots8/811.9 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.13 shots/match
49.4% ●Possession8/846.5%
6.38 corners/match ●Corners8/84.5 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls8/815.4 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Derby County
1Draws
2Stoke City
Derby County — Stoke City · Championship2–0
Stoke City — Derby County · Championship3–1
Derby County — Stoke City · Championship0–0
Stoke City — Derby County · Championship2–1
Stoke City — Derby County · Championship1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDerby CountyStoke City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headDerby County — Stoke City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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