Derby County
Championship · 2026Derby County vs Stoke City · Championship
Season
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
- Goals scored
- 0.86–1.57
- Expected goals
- 0.87–0.99
- Shots
- 11.7–11.9
- Possession
- 49.6%–44.3%
30-second read
What the record shows
The story here is recent context rather than season averages: derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Alongside it: each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
Derby County's recent record differs from the season
moderateDerby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.6 goals/match | 0.86 goals/match | 1.27 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
Both teams have elevated fouls records
moderateEach team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Derby County | Stoke City | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13.4 fouls/match | 15.9 fouls/match | 11.4 fouls/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
Derby County have a visible home split
weakDerby County's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: home
| Metric | Home only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 13.5 shots/match | 11.7 shots/match | 13 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Derby County favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Stoke City in 10 · 3 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
Derby County / Stoke City
History
Head-to-head
Recent meetings between these teams.
Last 5 meetings
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
- The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
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