PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Le Mans vs Toulouse · Ligue 1

Le Mans

DLDDW
vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.81.4
Expected goals
1.662.08
Shots
10.214.8
Possession
46.2%52.4%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. The next-strongest reading is weaker: toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

14.4 fouls/matchFoulsLe Mans · Toulouse16.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricLe MansToulouseBaseline
Fouls14.4 fouls/match16.8 fouls/match11.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLe Mans · Toulouse14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe MansToulouseBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against16.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Le Mans favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Toulouse in 7 · 4 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Le Mans5 matchesToulouse5 matches
1.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.4 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.66 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲ 2.08 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 14.8 shots/match
4.8 shots/matchShots on target5/54.6 shots/match
46.2%Possession5/5● 52.4%
2.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 4.6 corners/match
14.4 fouls/matchFouls5/516.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness27 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLe MansToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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