PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

AS Monaco 2–2 Toulouse · Ligue 1

2–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AS Monaco and Toulouse drew 2–2.

Shots
169
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.061.37
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

AS Monaco and Toulouse drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (AS Monaco – Toulouse): shots 16–9, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.06–1.37, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse have a visible away split

weak

Toulouse's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.33 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.33 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsAS Monaco 16 shots, Toulouse 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsAS Monaco 4 shots, Toulouse 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.06 xG1.37 xGAS Monaco 1.06 xG, Toulouse 1.37 xG
  • Possession58%42%AS Monaco 58%, Toulouse 42%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersAS Monaco 4 corners, Toulouse 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls16 foulsAS Monaco 10 fouls, Toulouse 16 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsAS Monaco 2 cards, Toulouse 2 cards
  • Passes645 passes466 passesAS Monaco 645 passes, Toulouse 466 passes
  • Pass accuracy89%87.3%AS Monaco 89%, Toulouse 87.3%
  • Shots inside box11 shots5 shotsAS Monaco 11 shots, Toulouse 5 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksAS Monaco 4 blocks, Toulouse 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves2 savesAS Monaco 2 saves, Toulouse 2 saves
  • Offsides0 offsides1 offsideAS Monaco 0 offsides, Toulouse 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 29′Edan DiopGoal · AS Monaco
  2. 38′Matthis AblineGoal · AS Monaco
  3. Half-time
  4. 47′NazinhoYellow card · AS Monaco
  5. 48′Casper TengstedtPenalty goal · Toulouse
  6. 54′Aleksandr GolovinYellow card · AS Monaco
  7. 59′Sion OppongGoal · Toulouse
  8. 70′Cristian Cásseres Jr.Yellow card · Toulouse
  9. 90′Sion OppongYellow card · Toulouse
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Toulouse · 1 player changeSion Oppong
  • 51′AS Monaco · 1 player changeSafouane Benzahra
  • 58′AS Monaco · 2 player changesStanis Idumbo Muzambo · Folarin Balogun
  • 71′Toulouse · 1 player changeNiko Sigur
  • 75′AS Monaco · 2 player changesAnsu Fati · Jordan Teze
  • 77′Toulouse · 1 player changeIsmail Diallo
  • 84′Toulouse · 2 player changesSantiago Hidalgo · Aron Dønnum

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

AS Monaco4-4-2
  1. Lukáš HrádeckýG
  2. VandersonD
  3. Eric DierD
  4. NazinhoD
  5. Sadibou SanéD
  6. Denis ZakariaM
  7. Mathys DetourbetM
  8. Lamine CamaraM
  9. Aleksandr GolovinM
  10. Folarin BalogunF
  11. Matthis AblineF
Toulouse4-4-2
  1. Guillaume RestesG
  2. Mark McKenzieD
  3. Seny KoumbassaD
  4. Christ TapéD
  5. Rafik MessaliD
  6. Thomas JørgensenM
  7. Niko SigurM
  8. Cristian Cásseres Jr.M
  9. Ilyas AziziM
  10. Jacen Russell RoweF
  11. Casper TengstedtF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AS Monaco
2Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 12–2
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–0
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 11–1
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 12–0
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AS Monaco favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Toulouse in 4 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AS Monaco6 matchesToulouse6 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.5 goals/match
0.83 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.83 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.96 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target6/64.5 shots/match
46.7%Possession6/6● 50.7%
3.67 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4.5 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/616.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAS MonacoToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headAS Monaco — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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