PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans · Ligue 1

vsPre-match analysis

Le Mans

DLDDW

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.51.8
Expected goals
1.641.66
Shots
18.810.2
Possession
67.5%46.2%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: le Mans's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Le Mans show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Le Mans's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Le Mans10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLe MansBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match10.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against9.5 shots/match16.2 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.5% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Le Mans46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLe MansBaseline
Possession67.5%46.2%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Le Mans in 0 · 13 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain4 matchesLe Mans5 matches
1.5 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲ 1.8 goals/match
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/51.8 goals/match
1.64 xG/matchExpected goals4/51.66 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots4/510.2 shots/match
6.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target4/54.8 shots/match
67.5% ●Possession4/546.2%
5.75 corners/match ●Corners4/52.6 corners/match
7.25 fouls/matchFouls4/514.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 5last-five windows
Freshness27 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainLe Mans
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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