PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Le Mans · Ligue 1

3–1Full-time analysis

Le Mans

DLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 3–1.

Shots
2211
Shots on target
83
Expected goals
4.11.55
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Le Mans 3–1. Recorded in this match (Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans): shots 22–11, shots on target 8–3, expected goals 4.1–1.55, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

21.3 shots/match ▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Le Mans10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLe MansBaseline
Shots21.3 shots/match10.3 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against10.2 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.3% ●PossessionParis Saint-Germain · Le Mans43%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricParis Saint-GermainLe MansBaseline
Possession67.3%43%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots11 shotsParis Saint-Germain 22 shots, Le Mans 11 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots3 shotsParis Saint-Germain 8 shots, Le Mans 3 shots
  • Expected goals4.1 xG1.55 xGParis Saint-Germain 4.1 xG, Le Mans 1.55 xG
  • Possession73%27%Paris Saint-Germain 73%, Le Mans 27%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersParis Saint-Germain 4 corners, Le Mans 4 corners
  • Fouls3 fouls17 foulsParis Saint-Germain 3 fouls, Le Mans 17 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards5 cardsParis Saint-Germain 0 cards, Le Mans 5 cards
  • Passes708 passes256 passesParis Saint-Germain 708 passes, Le Mans 256 passes
  • Pass accuracy88.4%70.7%Paris Saint-Germain 88.4%, Le Mans 70.7%
  • Shots inside box13 shots7 shotsParis Saint-Germain 13 shots, Le Mans 7 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks1 blockParis Saint-Germain 6 blocks, Le Mans 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesParis Saint-Germain 2 saves, Le Mans 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside5 offsidesParis Saint-Germain 1 offside, Le Mans 5 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 19′Lucas BeraldoPenalty goal · Paris Saint-Germain
  2. Half-time
  3. 47′Dame GueyeYellow card · Le Mans
  4. 54′Louis MafoutaGoal · Le Mans
  5. 61′Khvicha KvaratskheliaGoal · Paris Saint-Germain
  6. 65′Louis MafoutaYellow card · Le Mans
  7. 68′Maghnes AklioucheGoal · Paris Saint-Germain
  8. 90′Billal BrahimiYellow card · Le Mans
  9. 90′Rayan BambaYellow card · Le Mans
  10. 90′Noa BoisséYellow card · Le Mans
  11. 90′Désiré DouéPenalty missed · Paris Saint-Germain
  12. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Le Mans · 1 player changeDame Gueye
  • 58′Paris Saint-Germain · 2 player changesFabián Ruiz · Warren Zaïre-Emery
  • 59′Paris Saint-Germain · 2 player changesKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Vitinha
  • 66′Le Mans · 1 player changeBillal Brahimi
  • 72′Le Mans · 2 player changesAntoine Rabillard · William Harhouz
  • 72′Paris Saint-Germain · 1 player changeDésiré Doué
  • 77′Le Mans · 1 player changeYasser Larouci

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Paris Saint-Germain4-3-3
  1. Matvey SafonovG
  2. Achraf HakimiD
  3. MarquinhosD
  4. Lucas HernándezD
  5. Willian PachoD
  6. Fabián RuizM
  7. VitinhaM
  8. João NevesM
  9. Khvicha KvaratskheliaF
  10. Maghnes AklioucheF
  11. Désiré DouéF
Le Mans3-5-2
  1. Nicolas KocikG
  2. Harold VoyerD
  3. Raúl TorrenteD
  4. Samuel YohouD
  5. Rayan BambaD
  6. Yasser LarouciD
  7. Alexandre LaurayM
  8. Jean VercruysseM
  9. Lucas BretelleM
  10. Habibou DialloF
  11. Louis MafoutaF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Paris Saint-Germain favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Le Mans in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain6 matchesLe Mans6 matches
1.83 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/62 goals/match
2.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.64 xG/match
21.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/610.3 shots/match
7.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/64.5 shots/match
67.3% ●Possession6/643%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners6/62.83 corners/match
5.83 fouls/matchFouls6/614.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsParis Saint-GermainLe Mans
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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