PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Millwall vs Swansea City · Championship

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
1.881.63
Expected goals
1.911.54
Shots
14.812.1
Possession
44.1%59.6%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: swansea City have recorded the higher season possession share. The next-strongest reading is weaker: millwall's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Millwall's recent record differs from the season

weak

Millwall's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.2 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Swansea City have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.1%PossessionMillwall · Swansea City● 59.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMillwallSwansea CityBaseline
Possession44.1%59.6%49.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Swansea City in 8

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall8 matchesSwansea City8 matches
1.88 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.63 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲ 0.75 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.54 xG/match
14.8 shots/match ▲Shots8/812.1 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 5 shots/match
44.1%Possession8/8● 59.6%
4.38 corners/match ●Corners8/84.13 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls8/89.25 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Millwall
1Draws
0Swansea City
Millwall — Swansea City · Championship2–1
Swansea City — Millwall · Championship1–1
Millwall — Swansea City · Championship1–0
Swansea City — Millwall · Championship0–1
Swansea City — Millwall · Championship0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness24 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallSwansea City
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headMillwall — Swansea City
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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