PitchMath
Premier League · 2026

Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Crystal Palace won 3–1.

Shots
1324
Shots on target
76
Expected goals
2.382.97
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Recorded in this match (Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest): shots 13–24, shots on target 7–6, expected goals 2.38–2.97, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nottingham Forest's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsCrystal Palace · Nottingham Forest17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCrystal PalaceNottingham ForestBaseline
Shots11 shots/match17.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against18 shots/match11 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.33 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots24 shotsCrystal Palace 13 shots, Nottingham Forest 24 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots6 shotsCrystal Palace 7 shots, Nottingham Forest 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.38 xG2.97 xGCrystal Palace 2.38 xG, Nottingham Forest 2.97 xG
  • Possession43%57%Crystal Palace 43%, Nottingham Forest 57%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersCrystal Palace 5 corners, Nottingham Forest 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsCrystal Palace 11 fouls, Nottingham Forest 10 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsCrystal Palace 2 cards, Nottingham Forest 2 cards
  • Passes385 passes492 passesCrystal Palace 385 passes, Nottingham Forest 492 passes
  • Pass accuracy74.8%81.7%Crystal Palace 74.8%, Nottingham Forest 81.7%
  • Shots inside box11 shots17 shotsCrystal Palace 11 shots, Nottingham Forest 17 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks8 blocksCrystal Palace 2 blocks, Nottingham Forest 8 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves4 savesCrystal Palace 4 saves, Nottingham Forest 4 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideCrystal Palace 2 offsides, Nottingham Forest 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 3′Dan NdoyeGoal · Nottingham Forest
  2. 16′Jefferson LermaYellow card · Crystal Palace
  3. 41′Daichi KamadaGoal · Crystal Palace
  4. 45′Jefferson LermaGoal · Crystal Palace
  5. Half-time
  6. 59′Yéremy PinoGoal · Crystal Palace
  7. 60′Yéremy PinoYellow card · Crystal Palace
  8. 73′Ola AinaYellow card · Nottingham Forest
  9. 90′MurilloYellow card · Nottingham Forest
  10. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 66′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeIbrahim Sangaré
  • 72′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeCallum Hudson Odoi
  • 72′Crystal Palace · 1 player changeHonest Ahanor
  • 72′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeChris Wood
  • 83′Nottingham Forest · 1 player changeArnaud Kalimuendo
  • 83′Crystal Palace · 2 player changesEddie Nketiah · Ismaïla Sarr
  • 90′Crystal Palace · 1 player changeDwight McNeil

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1
  1. Walter BenítezG
  2. Tyrick MitchellD
  3. Jaydee CanvotD
  4. Honest AhanorD
  5. Anan KhalailiD
  6. Chris RichardsD
  7. Adam WhartonM
  8. Quinten TimberM
  9. Yéremy PinoF
  10. Daichi KamadaF
  11. Jørgen Strand LarsenF
Nottingham Forest3-4-2-1
  1. Matz SelsG
  2. Ousmane DiomandeD
  3. Neco WilliamsD
  4. MurilloD
  5. JairD
  6. Daniel MuñozD
  7. Xaver SchlagerM
  8. James McAteeM
  9. Morgan Gibbs-WhiteF
  10. Dan NdoyeF
  11. Liam DelapF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Crystal Palace
4Draws
1Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–0
Nottingham Forest — Crystal Palace · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Crystal Palace favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Crystal Palace6 matchesNottingham Forest6 matches
1.5 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/60.83 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.33 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.61 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 17.7 shots/match
4.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.83 shots/match
43.3%Possession6/6● 48.8%
2.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 4.17 corners/match
9.67 fouls/matchFouls6/614 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsCrystal PalaceNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier League
Head-to-headCrystal Palace — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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