PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
31.83
Expected goals
2.621.69
Shots
24.714.8
Possession
64.4%63.7%

30-second read

What the record shows

The season records do not separate these clubs, so the strongest stored context is their shared history: 5 meetings, 1 to AFC Ajax, 3 drawn, 1 to NEC Nijmegen. From this fixture's own record: AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Past meetings are history, not a forecast.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

24.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · NEC Nijmegen14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxNEC NijmegenBaseline
Shots24.7 shots/match14.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match11.2 shots/match16.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

NEC Nijmegen's recent record differs from the season

weak

NEC Nijmegen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match14.8 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · NEC Nijmegen in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax7 matchesNEC Nijmegen6 matches
3 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/61.83 goals/match
1.29 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/62 goals/match
2.62 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/61.69 xG/match
24.7 shots/match ▲Shots7/614.8 shots/match
8.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/64 shots/match
64.4% ●Possession7/663.7%
8 corners/match ●Corners7/65 corners/match
8.71 fouls/matchFouls7/611.7 fouls/match

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1AFC Ajax
3Draws
1NEC Nijmegen
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–1
NEC Nijmegen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
NEC Nijmegen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–2
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness28 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxNEC Nijmegen
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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