PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1.

Shots
188
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.781.05
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax and NEC Nijmegen drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – NEC Nijmegen): shots 18–8, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.78–1.05, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NEC Nijmegen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.63 goals/match1.69 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

23.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · NEC Nijmegen14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxNEC NijmegenBaseline
Shots23.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match
Shots against9.38 shots/match12.4 shots/match16.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

NEC Nijmegen have a visible away split

weak

NEC Nijmegen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots8 shotsAFC Ajax 18 shots, NEC Nijmegen 8 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsAFC Ajax 5 shots, NEC Nijmegen 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.78 xG1.05 xGAFC Ajax 1.78 xG, NEC Nijmegen 1.05 xG
  • Possession61%39%AFC Ajax 61%, NEC Nijmegen 39%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersAFC Ajax 4 corners, NEC Nijmegen 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls13 foulsAFC Ajax 8 fouls, NEC Nijmegen 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsAFC Ajax 2 cards, NEC Nijmegen 2 cards
  • Passes487 passes302 passesAFC Ajax 487 passes, NEC Nijmegen 302 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.4%71.5%AFC Ajax 83.4%, NEC Nijmegen 71.5%
  • Shots inside box13 shots5 shotsAFC Ajax 13 shots, NEC Nijmegen 5 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks2 blocksAFC Ajax 5 blocks, NEC Nijmegen 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save4 savesAFC Ajax 1 save, NEC Nijmegen 4 saves
  • Offsides1 offside5 offsidesAFC Ajax 1 offside, NEC Nijmegen 5 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 7′Tolu ArokodareGoal · AFC Ajax
  2. 17′Jorthy MokioYellow card · AFC Ajax
  3. 19′Tjaronn CheryPenalty goal · NEC Nijmegen
  4. 33′Bryan LinssenYellow card · NEC Nijmegen
  5. Half-time
  6. 54′Gabriel BrásYellow card · NEC Nijmegen
  7. 67′Abdellah OuazaneYellow card · AFC Ajax
  8. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 60′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesAbdellah Ouazane · Simon Adingra
  • 73′NEC Nijmegen · 2 player changesMitchel Bakker · Ahmetcan Kaplan
  • 73′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesAaron Bouwman · Marcos Leonardo
  • 80′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeDavy Klaassen
  • 82′NEC Nijmegen · 2 player changesWillum Thor Willumsson · Jamiro Monteiro

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AFC Ajax
  1. Marc-André Ter StegenG
  2. Lucas RosaD
  3. Owen WijndalD
  4. Thilo KehrerD
  5. Youri BaasD
  6. Sofyan AmrabatM
  7. Julian BrandtM
  8. Jorthy MokioM
  9. Oscar GloukhF
  10. Viktor TsygankovF
  11. Tolu ArokodareF
NEC Nijmegen
  1. Gonzalo CrettazG
  2. Perr SchuursD
  3. Tobias StormD
  4. Deveron FonvilleD
  5. Kevin KersD
  6. Gabriel BrásD
  7. Darko NejašmićM
  8. Noé LebretonM
  9. Tjaronn CheryF
  10. Dušan TadićF
  11. Bryan LinssenF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1AFC Ajax
3Draws
1NEC Nijmegen
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–1
NEC Nijmegen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
NEC Nijmegen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–2
AFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 13 of 13 directional metrics · NEC Nijmegen in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax8 matchesNEC Nijmegen8 matches
2.75 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.63 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.75 goals/match
2.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.53 xG/match
23.9 shots/match ▲Shots8/814.3 shots/match
7.75 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match
64% ●Possession8/858.4%
7.5 corners/match ●Corners8/84.88 corners/match
8.63 fouls/matchFouls8/811.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxNEC Nijmegen
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — NEC Nijmegen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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