PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga

2–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 2–0.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
0.81.16
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat Karlsruher SC 2–0. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC): shots 13–12, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 0.8–1.16, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli have a visible home split

weak

FC St. Pauli's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.5 shots/match14 shots/match15.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsFC St. Pauli 13 shots, Karlsruher SC 12 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsFC St. Pauli 6 shots, Karlsruher SC 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG1.16 xGFC St. Pauli 0.8 xG, Karlsruher SC 1.16 xG
  • Possession46%54%FC St. Pauli 46%, Karlsruher SC 54%
  • Corners6 corners9 cornersFC St. Pauli 6 corners, Karlsruher SC 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsFC St. Pauli 12 fouls, Karlsruher SC 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card2 cardsFC St. Pauli 1 card, Karlsruher SC 2 cards
  • Passes409 passes472 passesFC St. Pauli 409 passes, Karlsruher SC 472 passes
  • Pass accuracy78.7%79.5%FC St. Pauli 78.7%, Karlsruher SC 79.5%
  • Shots inside box7 shots9 shotsFC St. Pauli 7 shots, Karlsruher SC 9 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksFC St. Pauli 3 blocks, Karlsruher SC 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 savesFC St. Pauli 5 saves, Karlsruher SC 4 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides2 offsidesFC St. Pauli 4 offsides, Karlsruher SC 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 32′Abdoulie CeesayGoal · FC St. Pauli
  2. 34′Sandro TrémouletYellow card · Karlsruher SC
  3. Half-time
  4. 48′Marvin WanitzekYellow card · Karlsruher SC
  5. 51′Lars RitzkaGoal · FC St. Pauli
  6. 87′Branimir HrgotaYellow card · FC St. Pauli
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 68′FC St. Pauli · 1 player changeMartijn Kaars
  • 68′Karlsruher SC · 1 player changeKevin Wiethaup
  • 70′Karlsruher SC · 3 player changesLilian Egloff · Sebastian Jung · Jason Ponente
  • 73′FC St. Pauli · 2 player changesSamuel Klein · Ricky-Jade Jones
  • 80′Karlsruher SC · 1 player changeTim Civeja
  • 82′FC St. Pauli · 2 player changesBranimir Hrgota · Adam Dźwigała

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

FC St. Pauli
  1. Ben VollG
  2. David NemethD
  3. Arkadiusz PyrkaD
  4. Lars RitzkaD
  5. Louis OppieD
  6. Youssoupha NiangM
  7. Eric SmithM
  8. Joel Chima FujitaM
  9. Mathias RasmussenM
  10. Connor MetcalfeM
  11. Abdoulie CeesayF
Karlsruher SC
  1. Hans Christian BernatG
  2. Deniz OfliD
  3. Christoph KobaldD
  4. Sandro TrémouletD
  5. Marcel FrankeD
  6. Rafael Pinto PedrosaD
  7. Marvin WanitzekM
  8. Danyal ZorM
  9. Viktor BerghM
  10. Shio FukudaF
  11. Louey Ben FarhatF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC St. Pauli
2Draws
1Karlsruher SC
Karlsruher SC — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga2–1
FC St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga2–1
FC St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga1–1
Karlsruher SC — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga4–4
FC St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC · 2. Bundesliga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Karlsruher SC in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli7 matchesKarlsruher SC7 matches
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.86 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/72 goals/match
1.34 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.28 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 16.4 shots/match
5.14 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 5.71 shots/match
46.6%Possession7/7● 48.3%
6 corners/matchCorners7/7● 7 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/714.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliKarlsruher SC
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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