PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga

vsPre-match analysis

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.672.5
Expected goals
1.562.01
Shots
16.718.5
Possession
57.2%57.3%

30-second read

What the record shows

The retained record does not give either club a clear edge on the metrics that clear the gates. The closest thing to a difference: vfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match2.5 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Nürnberg favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 2 · 2 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Nürnberg6 matchesVfL Wolfsburg6 matches
2.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/62.5 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.33 goals/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 2.01 xG/match
16.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 18.5 shots/match
6.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/66.33 shots/match
57.2%Possession6/6● 57.3%
5 corners/matchCorners6/6● 6.5 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/613.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness22 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC NürnbergVfL Wolfsburg
Competition2. Bundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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