PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

1. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga

4–4Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg drew 4–4.

Shots
2122
Shots on target
89
Expected goals
2.223.69
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg drew 4–4. Recorded in this match (1. FC Nürnberg – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 21–22, shots on target 8–9, expected goals 2.22–3.69, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3.6 goals/match2.71 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots22 shots1. FC Nürnberg 21 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 22 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots9 shots1. FC Nürnberg 8 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 9 shots
  • Expected goals2.22 xG3.69 xG1. FC Nürnberg 2.22 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 3.69 xG
  • Possession50%50%1. FC Nürnberg 50%, VfL Wolfsburg 50%
  • Corners6 corners6 corners1. FC Nürnberg 6 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 6 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls24 fouls1. FC Nürnberg 10 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 24 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cards1. FC Nürnberg 2 cards, VfL Wolfsburg 3 cards
  • Passes425 passes416 passes1. FC Nürnberg 425 passes, VfL Wolfsburg 416 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.5%82.5%1. FC Nürnberg 83.5%, VfL Wolfsburg 82.5%
  • Shots inside box14 shots16 shots1. FC Nürnberg 14 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 16 shots
  • Blocked shots9 blocks6 blocks1. FC Nürnberg 9 blocks, VfL Wolfsburg 6 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves4 saves1. FC Nürnberg 5 saves, VfL Wolfsburg 4 saves
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offside1. FC Nürnberg 4 offsides, VfL Wolfsburg 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 12′Hauke WahlGoal · VfL Wolfsburg
  2. 20′Mohamed Ali ZomaYellow card · 1. FC Nürnberg
  3. 29′Muhammed DamarGoal · VfL Wolfsburg
  4. Half-time
  5. 52′Piet ScobelGoal · 1. FC Nürnberg
  6. 59′Piet ScobelGoal · 1. FC Nürnberg
  7. 62′Hauke WahlYellow card · VfL Wolfsburg
  8. 63′Mohamed Ali ZomaGoal · 1. FC Nürnberg
  9. 76′Mathys AngelyYellow card · VfL Wolfsburg
  10. 86′Kento ShiogaiYellow card · VfL Wolfsburg
  11. 87′Alexios KalogeropoulosYellow card · 1. FC Nürnberg
  12. 90′Alessio BesioGoal · VfL Wolfsburg
  13. 90′Giannis MasourasGoal · 1. FC Nürnberg
  14. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 62′VfL Wolfsburg · 1 player changeElvis Rexhbeçaj
  • 63′1. FC Nürnberg · 2 player changesGiannis Masouras · Rafael Lubach
  • 75′VfL Wolfsburg · 2 player changesKento Shiogai · Alessio Besio
  • 79′VfL Wolfsburg · 1 player changeMaximilian Arnold
  • 81′1. FC Nürnberg · 2 player changesAndrea Ceresoli · William Bøving

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

1. FC Nürnberg
  1. Jan ReichertG
  2. Alexios KalogeropoulosD
  3. Fynn OttoD
  4. Tim JanischD
  5. Eric PorstnerD
  6. Adam MarkhievM
  7. Rayan GhriebM
  8. Javier FernándezM
  9. Julian JustvanF
  10. Piet ScobelF
  11. Mohamed Ali ZomaF
VfL Wolfsburg
  1. Jakub ZielińskiG
  2. Kilian FischerD
  3. Hauke WahlD
  4. Joakim MæhleD
  5. Mathys AngelyD
  6. Vinícius SouzaM
  7. Muhammed DamarM
  8. Yannick GerhardtM
  9. Fabian ReeseF
  10. Alexander BernhardssonF
  11. Robert GlatzelF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Nürnberg favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 2 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Nürnberg7 matchesVfL Wolfsburg7 matches
2.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/72.71 goals/match
1.43 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.71 goals/match
1.65 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 2.25 xG/match
17.3 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 19 shots/match
6.86 shots/matchShots on target7/76.71 shots/match
56.1%Possession7/7● 56.3%
5.14 corners/matchCorners7/7● 6.43 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/714.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC NürnbergVfL Wolfsburg
Competition2. Bundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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